Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$36.02
58.6¢ → 63¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$47.43 | 50% 25606-25439 (51045) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$175.85 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $1.0K | $823.02 | -$223.28 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 38.1¢ | $468.53 | $411.85 | -$56.68 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 58.5¢ | $242.79 | $249.12 | +$6.33 | 53% 16101-14270 (30371) |
 us391 | Noavg 59¢ | $183.03 | $186.13 | +$3.1 | 51% 1708-1674 (3382) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 58¢ | $131.43 | $143.9 | +$12.46 | 50% 33813-33380 (67193) |
28 2829<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $76.11 | $75.46 | -$0.65 | 46% 423-495 (918) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $4.5 | $3.94 | -$0.56 | 49% 12981-13546 (26527) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $2.95 | -$0.03 | 52% 7480-6775 (14255) |
Invested
$2,276.04
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$47.43
Record
50%
25606-25439 (51045)
Both legs:
Invested
$468.53
Value
$411.85
PnL
-$56.68
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
Invested
$242.79
Value
$249.12
PnL
+$6.33
Record
53%
16101-14270 (30371)
us391Invested
$183.03
Value
$186.13
PnL
+$3.1
Record
51%
1708-1674 (3382)
Invested
$131.43
Value
$143.9
PnL
+$12.46
Record
50%
33813-33380 (67193)
Invested
$76.11
Value
$75.46
PnL
-$0.65
Record
46%
423-495 (918)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$3.94
PnL
-$0.56
Record
49%
12981-13546 (26527)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7480-6775 (14255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.