Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 99.5¢

+97% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares24,800

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares15,742

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Mastermoney	Overavg 49.3¢	$6.8K	$10.1K	+$3.3K	46% 206-240 (446)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 49.9¢	$4.4K	$6.3K	+$1.8K	59% 45754-32097 (77851)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$491.51	50% 33353-32915 (66268)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$807.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	$-1.3K
CH chongchong37CTR	Underavg 54¢	$6.7K	$3.3K	$-3.4K	54% 107-91 (198)
CA Cannae	Overavg 50.2¢	$891.89	$1.2K	-$8.31	53% 15944-14125 (30069)
fxwd12345	Overavg 77¢	$658.34	$628.41	-$29.92	69% 1500-680 (2180)
us391CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.1K	$620.84	-$480.27	51% 1683-1643 (3326)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 50.4¢	$253.43	$194.98	-$58.44	59% 10125-7117 (17242)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 34.6¢	$186.27	$157.99	-$28.28	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 50.4¢	$80.03	$83.92	+$3.89	58% 28668-21156 (49824)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$118.41	$66.74	-$51.67	58% 41846-30383 (72229)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 24.6¢	$19.66	$21.15	+$1.49	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 28¢	$4.98	$13.08	+$8.1	64% 1104-632 (1736)

Mastermoney

Over

Invested

$6,800

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

46%

206-240 (446)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$4,446.98

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

45754-32097 (77851)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,442.28

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$491.51

Record

50%

33353-32915 (66268)

Both legs:

Over$1,345.2245¢+$807.13

Under$3,097.0648.2¢$-1.3K

chongchong37CTR

Under

Invested

$6,709.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

54%

107-91 (198)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$891.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$8.31

Record

53%

15944-14125 (30069)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$658.34

Value

$628.41

PnL

-$29.92

Record

69%

1500-680 (2180)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$1,101.12

Value

$620.84

PnL

-$480.27

Record

51%

1683-1643 (3326)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$253.43

Value

$194.98

PnL

-$58.44

Record

59%

10125-7117 (17242)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$186.27

Value

$157.99

PnL

-$28.28

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$80.03

Value

$83.92

PnL

+$3.89

Record

58%

28668-21156 (49824)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$118.41

Value

$66.74

PnL

-$51.67

Record

58%

41846-30383 (72229)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.66

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$1.49

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$4.98

Value

$13.08

PnL

+$8.1

Record

64%

1104-632 (1736)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.