Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 28¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 67%
$4.3K
-$284.05
55¢ → 27.5¢
-50% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 55¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$43.93 | 51% 1683-1643 (3326) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 44.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.7K | -$252.77 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 60.3¢ | $167.3 | $167.89 | +$0.59 | 50% 33353-32915 (66268) |
LA lavendergooms<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $38.46 | $48.14 | +$9.68 | 52% 2620-2374 (4994) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.7¢ | $50.18 | $46.06 | -$4.12 | 49% 7885-8203 (16088) |
RO Rocko33 | Yesavg 26¢ | $220 | $30 | +$2.58 | 64% 1104-632 (1736) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $6.23 | $10.13 | +$3.89 | 59% 10125-7117 (17242) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $3.4 | $3.33 | -$0.07 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $3.05 | +$0.1 | 58% 18635-13702 (32337) |
us391CTRInvested
$2,416.33
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$43.93
Record
51%
1683-1643 (3326)
Invested
$1,911.93
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$252.77
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
Invested
$167.3
Value
$167.89
PnL
+$0.59
Record
50%
33353-32915 (66268)
Invested
$38.46
Value
$48.14
PnL
+$9.68
Record
52%
2620-2374 (4994)
Invested
$50.18
Value
$46.06
PnL
-$4.12
Record
49%
7885-8203 (16088)
Invested
$220
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.58
Record
64%
1104-632 (1736)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$6.23
Value
$10.13
PnL
+$3.89
Record
59%
10125-7117 (17242)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
18635-13702 (32337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.