Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-10-31?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 64¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$982.71

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 63.5¢

+20% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares17,094

Combined PnL+$988.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$257.79

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$6.12

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 51.7¢	$6.7K	$7.6K	+$890.15	50% 25065-24808 (49873)
KC Kch-Temp	Noavg 54.8¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$68.72	51% 214-208 (422)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 44.9¢	$867.27	$871.71	+$4.45	53% 15944-14125 (30069)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.9¢	$588.06	$576.7	-$11.36
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$279.21	$295.01	+$15.8
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$447.04	$484.64	+$37.6	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.5¢	$275.5	$323.88	+$48.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.1¢	$171.55	$160.76	-$10.78
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57.4¢	$179.61	$198.76	+$19.14	59% 45758-32100 (77858)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$759.61	$186	+$2.33	58% 41850-30387 (72237)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 55.4¢	$147.86	$149.52	+$1.66	58% 28670-21162 (49832)
SA Saber-greed	Noavg 54¢	$120.45	$124.91	+$4.46	59% 2554-1781 (4335)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 56¢	$97.94	$97.94	+$0	51% 476-458 (934)
28 2829<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$96.83	$96.52	-$0.31	46% 415-491 (906)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.7¢	$53.06	$51.84	-$1.23	53% 4546-4095 (8641)
LZ lzh1<$100	Noavg 52¢	$13	$13.38	+$0.38	43% 465-619 (1084)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$17.25	$11	-$6.25	59% 30461-21177 (51638)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$9.92	$8.95	-$0.97	55% 8297-6693 (14990)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 38.4¢	$6	$8.75	+$2.75	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 35¢	$3.5	$5.6	+$2.1	58% 18639-13702 (32341)
TA takeormake<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.08	-$0.22	53% 4134-3596 (7730)
GG GGLPL<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	50% 678-674 (1352)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$6,713.33

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$890.15

Record

50%

25065-24808 (49873)

Kch-Temp

Invested

$3,242.47

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$68.72

Record

51%

214-208 (422)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$867.27

Value

$871.71

PnL

+$4.45

Record

53%

15944-14125 (30069)

Both legs:

Yes$588.0644.9¢-$11.36

No$279.2153¢+$15.8

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$447.04

Value

$484.64

PnL

+$37.6

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

No$275.551.5¢+$48.38

Yes$171.5542.1¢-$10.78

UpTheBlues

Invested

$179.61

Value

$198.76

PnL

+$19.14

Record

59%

45758-32100 (77858)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$759.61

Value

$186

PnL

+$2.33

Record

58%

41850-30387 (72237)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$147.86

Value

$149.52

PnL

+$1.66

Record

58%

28670-21162 (49832)

Saber-greed

Invested

$120.45

Value

$124.91

PnL

+$4.46

Record

59%

2554-1781 (4335)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$97.94

Value

$97.94

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

476-458 (934)

2829<$100

Invested

$96.83

Value

$96.52

PnL

-$0.31

Record

46%

415-491 (906)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.06

Value

$51.84

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

4546-4095 (8641)

lzh1<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

43%

465-619 (1084)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.25

Value

$11

PnL

-$6.25

Record

59%

30461-21177 (51638)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.92

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0.97

Record

55%

8297-6693 (14990)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$2.1

Record

58%

18639-13702 (32341)

takeormake<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

4134-3596 (7730)

GGLPL<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

678-674 (1352)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.