Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$2.6K
$391.67
83.5¢ → 99.5¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$144.62 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 83.6¢ | $845.24 | $933.61 | +$88.37 | 59% 45758-32100 (77858) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 20¢ | $53.67 | $133.13 | +$79.46 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 19.9¢ | $106.53 | $129.58 | +$69.96 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 14.1¢ | $4.23 | $14.85 | +$10.62 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 80.2¢ | $3.7 | $2.33 | -$1.37 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$1,249.88
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$144.62
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$845.24
Value
$933.61
PnL
+$88.37
Record
59%
45758-32100 (77858)
Invested
$53.67
Value
$133.13
PnL
+$79.46
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$106.53
Value
$129.58
PnL
+$69.96
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$10.62
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$1.37
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.