Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$2.2K
$409.07
70.5¢ → 98¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 69.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$263.82 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 73.2¢ | $442.84 | $559.33 | +$116.49 | 59% 45758-32100 (77858) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $74 | $99 | +$25 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 74.9¢ | $49.8 | $50.87 | +$1.07 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $33.44 | $43.56 | +$10.12 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 15.1¢ | $30.8 | $22.45 | -$8.35 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 68.4¢ | $4.55 | $4.8 | +$0.25 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $2.48 | +$0.68 | 48% 2376-2612 (4988) |
Invested
$1,134.55
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$263.82
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$442.84
Value
$559.33
PnL
+$116.49
Record
59%
45758-32100 (77858)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$74
Value
$99
PnL
+$25
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$50.87
PnL
+$1.07
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$33.44
Value
$43.56
PnL
+$10.12
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$22.45
PnL
-$8.35
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.68
Record
48%
2376-2612 (4988)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.