Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 42¢ · $992 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$991.56
$7.95
40.6¢ → 41.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-TempCTR | Underavg 40.5¢ | $1.3K | $540.25 | +$13.51 | 50% 210-207 (417) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 59.1¢ | $189.31 | $185.86 | -$3.45 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $90.41 | $90.41 | -$0 | 47% 2468-2773 (5241) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 58.7¢ | $87.99 | $86.99 | -$0.25 | 58% 41497-30120 (71617) |
MA manoamanoCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $48.61 | $47.45 | -$1.16 | 51% 465-448 (913) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $41.3 | $40.6 | -$0.7 | 58% 28416-20976 (49392) |
Invested
$1,301.81
Value
$540.25
PnL
+$13.51
Record
50%
210-207 (417)
Invested
$189.31
Value
$185.86
PnL
-$3.45
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$90.41
Value
$90.41
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2468-2773 (5241)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$87.99
Value
$86.99
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
41497-30120 (71617)
Invested
$48.61
Value
$47.45
PnL
-$1.16
Record
51%
465-448 (913)
Invested
$41.3
Value
$40.6
PnL
-$0.7
Record
58%
28416-20976 (49392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.