Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 72¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 72¢

+89% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,561

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over2 traders

Total Value$28.31

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$15.45

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 68.5¢	$5.8K	$5.0K	-$747.22	50% 25065-24808 (49873)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$1.1K
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.5¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	$-1.8K
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 37.3¢	$1.9K	$3.6K	+$1.6K	59% 45758-32100 (77858)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$220.76	$196.6	-$24.16	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$174.3	$110.2	-$64.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.1¢	$46.46	$86.39	+$39.93
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 51.6¢	$158.66	$176.76	+$18.11	50% 33354-32918 (66272)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$67.17	$76.69	+$9.52	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.8¢	$36.01	$54.27	+$18.26
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$31.16	$22.42	-$8.74
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 29¢	$20.61	$48.99	+$28.38	53% 4546-4095 (8641)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 82¢	$41	$25.5	-$15.5	58% 28670-21162 (49832)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 56¢	$6.38	$8.03	+$1.65	59% 10128-7124 (17252)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$2.76	$2.81	+$0.05	49% 19146-19539 (38685)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 18¢	$0.42	$1.14	+$0.72	58% 41850-30387 (72237)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,753.88

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$747.22

Record

50%

25065-24808 (49873)

Both legs:

Under$2,511.0649¢+$1.1K

Over$3,242.8268.5¢$-1.8K

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,928.38

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

45758-32100 (77858)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$220.76

Value

$196.6

PnL

-$24.16

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Over$174.349¢-$64.1

Under$46.4637.1¢+$39.93

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$158.66

Value

$176.76

PnL

+$18.11

Record

50%

33354-32918 (66272)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$67.17

Value

$76.69

PnL

+$9.52

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

Both legs:

Under$36.0146.8¢+$18.26

Over$31.1641¢-$8.74

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$20.61

Value

$48.99

PnL

+$28.38

Record

53%

4546-4095 (8641)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$15.5

Record

58%

28670-21162 (49832)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$6.38

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$1.65

Record

59%

10128-7124 (17252)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

19146-19539 (38685)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$0.42

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.72

Record

58%

41850-30387 (72237)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.