Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $200 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$200.19
-$9.12
75.3¢ → 80.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $74.48 | $74.49 | +$0.01 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.4¢ | $44.61 | $45.26 | +$0.66 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23¢ | $29.87 | $29.22 | -$0.65 | |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $38.68 | $40.15 | +$1.47 | 50% 33354-32918 (66272) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $48.59 | $34.9 | -$13.69 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $19.15 | $18.65 | -$0.5 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $16.1 | +$0.1 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $10.5 | $11 | +$0.5 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.9 | $4.9 | +$3 | 58% 18639-13702 (32341) |
Invested
$74.48
Value
$74.49
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.68
Value
$40.15
PnL
+$1.47
Record
50%
33354-32918 (66272)
Invested
$48.59
Value
$34.9
PnL
-$13.69
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
Invested
$19.15
Value
$18.65
PnL
-$0.5
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
Invested
$16
Value
$16.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.5
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$3
Record
58%
18639-13702 (32341)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.