Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.9K
$429.85
58.5¢ → 82.5¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 67¢ | $935.32 | $1.1K | +$153.56 | 59% 45758-32100 (77858) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 48.8¢ | $278.13 | $464.62 | +$186.49 | 50% 33354-32918 (66272) |
FO foooool | Noavg 42.2¢ | $206.3 | $294.29 | +$87.99 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $62 | $41.13 | +$1.27 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $8.01 | $9.29 | +$1.28 | 49% 19146-19539 (38685) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $4.4 | $3.65 | -$0.75 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$935.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$153.56
Record
59%
45758-32100 (77858)
Invested
$278.13
Value
$464.62
PnL
+$186.49
Record
50%
33354-32918 (66272)
Invested
$206.3
Value
$294.29
PnL
+$87.99
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$62
Value
$41.13
PnL
+$1.27
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$1.28
Record
49%
19146-19539 (38685)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$0.75
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.