Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$362.71

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 81.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,575

Combined PnL-$361.29

Over1 trader

Total Value$16.59

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$1.42

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 67.4¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$366.96	50% 24853-24559 (49412)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 68.8¢	$173.22	$177.51	+$5.4	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100	Overavg 40.6¢	$18.01	$16.59	-$1.42	38% 3184-5178 (8362)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 70¢	$14	$14.2	+$0.2	47% 2254-2544 (4798)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 70¢	$4.62	$4.68	+$0.07	58% 28411-20968 (49379)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,788.6

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$366.96

Record

50%

24853-24559 (49412)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$173.22

Value

$177.51

PnL

+$5.4

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.01

Value

$16.59

PnL

-$1.42

Record

38%

3184-5178 (8362)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

2254-2544 (4798)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.