Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$4.1K
$46.54
46.9¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 47.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$37.04 | 51% 1670-1616 (3286) |
CH chongchong37CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $888.25 | $897.91 | +$9.65 | 55% 97-80 (177) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 51¢ | $757.39 | $757.39 | -$0 | 50% 24837-24541 (49378) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 46.4¢ | $101.83 | $102.52 | +$0.68 | 53% 15876-14060 (29936) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 49.5¢ | $99 | $98 | -$1 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.2¢ | $94 | $93.54 | -$0.46 | 58% 5816-4267 (10083) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $62.1 | $62.78 | +$0.68 | 58% 28351-20930 (49281) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 48.3¢ | $7.25 | $7.2 | -$0.05 | 47% 2237-2519 (4756) |
us391CTRInvested
$2,028.07
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$37.04
Record
51%
1670-1616 (3286)
Invested
$888.25
Value
$897.91
PnL
+$9.65
Record
55%
97-80 (177)
Invested
$757.39
Value
$757.39
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
24837-24541 (49378)
Invested
$101.83
Value
$102.52
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
15876-14060 (29936)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$99
Value
$98
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
Invested
$94
Value
$93.54
PnL
-$0.46
Record
58%
5816-4267 (10083)
Invested
$62.1
Value
$62.78
PnL
+$0.68
Record
58%
28351-20930 (49281)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2237-2519 (4756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.