Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 39¢ · $366 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$366.13
-$4.82
40.2¢ → 38.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 41.5¢ | $335.45 | $159.18 | -$16.28 | 58% 41483-30101 (71584) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 41.6¢ | $137.56 | $129.09 | -$0.19 | 58% 28411-20968 (49379) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $56.65 | $55.23 | +$2.83 | 47% 2468-2770 (5238) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $12.77 | $21.62 | +$8.85 | 38% 3184-5178 (8362) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $1.04 | $1.01 | -$0.03 | 52% 3992-3635 (7627) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$335.45
Value
$159.18
PnL
-$16.28
Record
58%
41483-30101 (71584)
Invested
$137.56
Value
$129.09
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
28411-20968 (49379)
Invested
$56.65
Value
$55.23
PnL
+$2.83
Record
47%
2468-2770 (5238)
Invested
$12.77
Value
$21.62
PnL
+$8.85
Record
38%
3184-5178 (8362)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
3992-3635 (7627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.