Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-10-30?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $852 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$851.84
-$8.74
64.5¢ → 63.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 65¢ | $480.25 | $472.86 | -$7.39 | 47% 2461-2764 (5225) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $142.99 | $142.24 | -$0.75 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 63.9¢ | $76.56 | $76.05 | -$0.51 | 50% 24837-24541 (49378) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $71.34 | $71.63 | +$0.29 | 53% 15876-14060 (29936) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $64.64 | $64.64 | +$0 | 58% 28351-20930 (49281) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $25.8 | $24.42 | -$0.38 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
Invested
$480.25
Value
$472.86
PnL
-$7.39
Record
47%
2461-2764 (5225)
Invested
$142.99
Value
$142.24
PnL
-$0.75
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$76.56
Value
$76.05
PnL
-$0.51
Record
50%
24837-24541 (49378)
Invested
$71.34
Value
$71.63
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
15876-14060 (29936)
Invested
$64.64
Value
$64.64
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28351-20930 (49281)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$25.8
Value
$24.42
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.