Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Auckland FC win on 2026-10-30?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 42¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$124.59

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 41.5¢

-36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,495

Combined PnL-$103.79

Yes3 traders

Total Value$77.84

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$20.8

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391CTR	Noavg 67¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$26.11	51% 1671-1620 (3291)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 63.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$101.47	50% 24853-24559 (49412)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 62.4¢	$215.83	$226.18	+$10.35	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 62¢	$221.14	$223.46	+$2.31	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 63.9¢	$140.02	$144.54	+$4.52	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 63.5¢	$260.2	$132	+$6.1	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$40.92	$42.16	+$1.24	52% 3992-3635 (7627)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$52.77	$32.62	-$20.15	59% 30359-21072 (51431)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$8.62	$9.48	+$0.5	47% 2468-2770 (5238)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$4.95	$3.06	-$1.89	38% 3184-5178 (8362)

us391CTR

Invested

$1,831.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$26.11

Record

51%

1671-1620 (3291)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,454.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$101.47

Record

50%

24853-24559 (49412)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$215.83

Value

$226.18

PnL

+$10.35

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$221.14

Value

$223.46

PnL

+$2.31

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$140.02

Value

$144.54

PnL

+$4.52

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$260.2

Value

$132

PnL

+$6.1

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.92

Value

$42.16

PnL

+$1.24

Record

52%

3992-3635 (7627)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.77

Value

$32.62

PnL

-$20.15

Record

59%

30359-21072 (51431)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Invested

$8.62

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

2468-2770 (5238)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$1.89

Record

38%

3184-5178 (8362)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.