Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Zverev (64%) · Alexander Zverev at 93¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 3

Alexander Zverev93¢Martin Landaluce7¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Zverev

Consensus Traders

Alexander Zverev 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$300.12

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 92.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Zverev at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Zverev

9 of 14 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Zverev93%

Martin Landaluce8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Zverev9 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares16,168

Combined PnL-$618.6

Martin Landaluce5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares12,274

Combined PnL+$918.72

Alexander Zverev — 64%Martin Landaluce — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
coinlaundry	Alexander Zverevavg 92.3¢	$9.1K	$8.5K	-$569.09	87% 232-35 (267)
RN1ARB<$100	Martin Landaluceavg 10.9¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$530.48	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
└ Martin Landaluce leg	Martin Landaluceavg 10.9¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$526.52
└ Alexander Zverev leg	Alexander Zverevavg 84¢	$663.68	$667.63	+$3.95
Reformedx	Alexander Zverevavg 91¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$23.53	52% 769-716 (1485)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Martin Landaluceavg 9.4¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$871.75	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alexander Zverevavg 91.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$17.31	52% 13483-12339 (25822)
IL Illiasca	Alexander Zverevavg 92¢	$1,000	$994.57	-$5.43	65% 246-134 (380)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 80¢	$777	$851.56	+$74.56	51% 1203-1134 (2337)
└ Alexander Zverev leg	Alexander Zverevavg 80¢	$640	$668	+$28
└ Martin Landaluce leg	Martin Landaluceavg 12.3¢	$137	$183.56	+$46.56
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 92.8¢	$2.2K	$570.44	-$13.72	53% 580-515 (1095)
└ Alexander Zverev leg	Alexander Zverevavg 92.8¢	$485.09	$447.17	-$160.09
└ Martin Landaluce leg	Martin Landaluceavg 10¢	$84.65	$123.28	+$146.38
PA Paul973973	Alexander Zverevavg 83¢	$500	$496.99	-$3.01	89% 869-109 (978)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Martin Landaluceavg 7.9¢	$284.28	$307.48	+$23.21	62% 13578-8411 (21989)
SA Saber-greed	Alexander Zverevavg 91¢	$171.15	$169.27	-$1.88	59% 2508-1738 (4246)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Martin Landaluceavg 16¢	$87.93	$85.18	-$2.75	49% 18399-18822 (37221)
HRTrading<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 87.4¢	$81.34	$82.73	+$1.39	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 92¢	$62.1	$59.74	-$2.36	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
EF efntrick<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 84.7¢	$39.45	$39.83	+$2.63	48% 3615-3873 (7488)
VeryLucky888CTR	Martin Landaluceavg 8¢	$672.56	$13.23	+$25.51	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Martin Landaluceavg 11¢	$5.64	$0.35	+$1.01	56% 1785-1394 (3179)

coinlaundry

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$9,100.09

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$569.09

Record

87%

232-35 (267)

RN1ARB<$100

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$1,900.3

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$530.48

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

Both legs:

Martin Landaluce$1,236.6210.9¢+$526.52

Alexander Zverev$663.6884¢+$3.95

Reformedx

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$2,141.32

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$23.53

Record

52%

769-716 (1485)

UpTheBluesCTR

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$1,121.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$871.75

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$1,907.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$17.31

Record

52%

13483-12339 (25822)

Illiasca

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$1,000

Value

$994.57

PnL

-$5.43

Record

65%

246-134 (380)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$777

Value

$851.56

PnL

+$74.56

Record

51%

1203-1134 (2337)

Both legs:

Alexander Zverev$64080¢+$28

Martin Landaluce$13712.3¢+$46.56

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$2,200.58

Value

$570.44

PnL

-$13.72

Record

53%

580-515 (1095)

Both legs:

Alexander Zverev$485.0992.8¢-$160.09

Martin Landaluce$84.6510¢+$146.38

Paul973973

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$500

Value

$496.99

PnL

-$3.01

Record

89%

869-109 (978)

LilybaeumCTR

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$284.28

Value

$307.48

PnL

+$23.21

Record

62%

13578-8411 (21989)

Saber-greed

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$171.15

Value

$169.27

PnL

-$1.88

Record

59%

2508-1738 (4246)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$87.93

Value

$85.18

PnL

-$2.75

Record

49%

18399-18822 (37221)

HRTrading<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$81.34

Value

$82.73

PnL

+$1.39

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$62.1

Value

$59.74

PnL

-$2.36

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

efntrick<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$39.45

Value

$39.83

PnL

+$2.63

Record

48%

3615-3873 (7488)

VeryLucky888CTR

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$672.56

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$25.51

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Martin Landaluce

Invested

$5.64

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$1.01

Record

56%

1785-1394 (3179)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Zverev at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Zverev

9 of 14 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Zverev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.