Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rafael Jodar, while the market favors Alexander Zverev (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Rafael Jodar (+1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rafael Jodar (56%) · Rafael Jodar at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Alexander Zverev>99¢Rafael Jodar<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rafael Jodar

Consensus Traders

Rafael Jodar 56%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$338.13

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRafael Jodar at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rafael Jodar

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Zverev 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Zverev100%

Rafael Jodar1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Zverev4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,895

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Rafael Jodar5 traders

Total Value$447.46

Total Shares3,395

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Alexander Zverev — 44%Rafael Jodar — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rafael Jodar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rafael Jodar) and the top 1000 (7 on Alexander Zverev) disagree here.

ctrRafael Jodar 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Zverev 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OL OldZz	Alexander Zverevavg 45.8¢	$892.41	$1.8K	+$950.34	0% 0-51 (51)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Alexander Zverevavg 44¢	$235	$320.45	+$85.45	46% 19-22 (41)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Rafael Jodaravg 50.2¢	$333	$282.91	-$50.09	46% 631-739 (1370)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Alexander Zverevavg 42¢	$163.8	$234	+$70.2	48% 471-508 (979)
VeryLucky888CTR	Rafael Jodaravg 54¢	$818.86	$81.98	-$722.38	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Rafael Jodaravg 51.1¢	$695.79	$74.91	-$620.88	37% 490-820 (1310)
SU suntori<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 45¢	$9.52	$12.69	+$3.17	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
NO Novelty8CTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 50¢	$58.82	$6.47	-$52.35	10% 20-171 (191)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 56¢	$2.8	$1.2	-$1.6	43% 855-1138 (1993)

OldZz

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$892.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$950.34

Record

0-51 (51)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$235

Value

$320.45

PnL

+$85.45

Record

46%

19-22 (41)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$333

Value

$282.91

PnL

-$50.09

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$163.8

Value

$234

PnL

+$70.2

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$818.86

Value

$81.98

PnL

-$722.38

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

SlickRick123CTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$695.79

Value

$74.91

PnL

-$620.88

Record

37%

490-820 (1310)

suntori<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$9.52

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$3.17

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Novelty8CTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$58.82

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$52.35

Record

10%

20-171 (191)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

43%

855-1138 (1993)

Research grade

AvoidRafael Jodar at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Rafael Jodar

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Zverev 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rafael Jodar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rafael Jodar) and the top 1000 (7 on Alexander Zverev) disagree here.

ctrRafael Jodar 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Zverev 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rafael Jodar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.