Set 1 Winner: Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Zverev (45%) · Alexander Zverev at 63¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 22

Alexander Zverev63¢Rafael Jodar37¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Zverev

Consensus Traders

Alexander Zverev 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 63¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Zverev at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Zverev

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Zverev63%

Rafael Jodar37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Zverev5 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares25,699

Combined PnL+$582.13

Rafael Jodar6 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares34,297

Combined PnL+$828.56

Alexander Zverev — 45%Rafael Jodar — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI big8betz	Alexander Zverevavg 66.1¢	$15.8K	$16.4K	+$566.15	51% 83-79 (162)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Rafael Jodaravg 34¢	$7.8K	$8.3K	+$458.54	48% 469-508 (977)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rafael Jodaravg 33.3¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$321.91	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
MO mouzsynapse	Alexander Zverevavg 63¢	$985.56	$985.56	+$0	41% 160-233 (393)
EZ EzmoneyfornowCTR	Rafael Jodaravg 37.6¢	$867.26	$830.74	-$36.52	47% 26-29 (55)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Rafael Jodaravg 32.5¢	$414.39	$497.81	+$83.42	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
poshposhARB<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 30.6¢	$136.81	$110.22	-$26.58	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
└ Alexander Zverev leg	Alexander Zverevavg 63.1¢	$43.5	$56.91	+$13.41
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 30.6¢	$93.31	$53.32	-$39.99
SU suntori	Alexander Zverevavg 66¢	$83.58	$100.68	+$17.1	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
VeryLucky888<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 64¢	$71.11	$70	-$1.11	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 33¢	$32.67	$34.15	+$1.48	37% 93-159 (252)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.15	+$0	43% 851-1135 (1986)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 22¢	$1.32	$1.05	-$0.27	60% 1466-967 (2433)

big8betz

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$15,800

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$566.15

Record

51%

83-79 (162)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$7,821.35

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$458.54

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2,766.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$321.91

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

mouzsynapse

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$985.56

Value

$985.56

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

160-233 (393)

EzmoneyfornowCTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$867.26

Value

$830.74

PnL

-$36.52

Record

47%

26-29 (55)

topdogbigboiCTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$414.39

Value

$497.81

PnL

+$83.42

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

poshposhARB<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$136.81

Value

$110.22

PnL

-$26.58

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

Both legs:

Alexander Zverev$43.563.1¢+$13.41

Rafael Jodar$93.3130.6¢-$39.99

suntori

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$83.58

Value

$100.68

PnL

+$17.1

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

VeryLucky888<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$71.11

Value

$70

PnL

-$1.11

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$32.67

Value

$34.15

PnL

+$1.48

Record

37%

93-159 (252)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

shiifooCTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.27

Record

60%

1466-967 (2433)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Zverev at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Zverev

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Zverev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.