Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rafael Jodar, while the market favors Alexander Zverev (70%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ATP World Tour Finals, John McEnroe Group: Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rafael Jodar (67%) · Rafael Jodar at 30¢ · $814 held · ends Nov 22

Alexander Zverev70¢Rafael Jodar30¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rafael Jodar

Consensus Traders

Rafael Jodar 67%

Total Value

$813.53

Combined PnL

-$15.08

Smart Money Entry

30.3¢ → 30¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRafael Jodar at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rafael Jodar

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Zverev 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Zverev70%

Rafael Jodar30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rafael Jodar6 traders

Total Value$596.48

Total Shares2,033

Combined PnL-$20.09

Alexander Zverev3 traders

Total Value$217.06

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$5

Rafael Jodar — 67%Alexander Zverev — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rafael Jodar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAlexander Zverev 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRafael Jodar 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Rafael Jodaravg 31¢	$405.03	$378.89	-$26.13	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
GC GC-PCTR	Rafael Jodaravg 29¢	$196.06	$202.82	+$6.76	42% 537-740 (1277)
DA darkumbreon88	Alexander Zverevavg 68¢	$153.95	$158.48	+$4.53	61% 1079-677 (1756)
HY hydra1248<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 69.7¢	$48.21	$48.39	+$0.18	75% 223-76 (299)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 68¢	$9.89	$10.18	+$0.29	46% 600-717 (1317)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 31¢	$9.61	$8.99	-$0.62	50% 2098-2139 (4237)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 30¢	$2.87	$2.78	-$0.1	52% 203-184 (387)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 30¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	41% 1159-1644 (2803)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 30¢	$1.5	$1.5	-$0	43% 833-1123 (1956)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$405.03

Value

$378.89

PnL

-$26.13

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

GC-PCTR

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$196.06

Value

$202.82

PnL

+$6.76

Record

42%

537-740 (1277)

darkumbreon88

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$153.95

Value

$158.48

PnL

+$4.53

Record

61%

1079-677 (1756)

hydra1248<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$48.21

Value

$48.39

PnL

+$0.18

Record

75%

223-76 (299)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$9.89

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$0.29

Record

46%

600-717 (1317)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$9.61

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

2098-2139 (4237)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

203-184 (387)

sentrioCTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1159-1644 (2803)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

833-1123 (1956)

Research grade

NeutralRafael Jodar at 30%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rafael Jodar

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Zverev 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rafael Jodar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAlexander Zverev 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRafael Jodar 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rafael Jodar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.