Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Zverev (67%) · Alexander Zverev at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Alexander Zverev>99¢Tallon Griekspoor<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Zverev

Consensus Traders

Alexander Zverev 67%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$299.52

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Zverev at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Zverev

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Zverev100%

Tallon Griekspoor0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Zverev4 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares12,514

Combined PnL-$213.17

Tallon Griekspoor2 traders

Total Value$784.85

Total Shares1,712

Combined PnL-$86.35

Alexander Zverev — 67%Tallon Griekspoor — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Zverev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alexander Zverev) and the top 1000 (4 on Tallon Griekspoor) disagree here.

ctrAlexander Zverev 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexander Zverev 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tallon Griekspoor 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Alexander Zverevavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$4.51	99% 12843-194 (13037)
VeryLucky888	Alexander Zverevavg 50.4¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$216.33	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
0X 0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 51.3¢	$842.07	$738.29	-$103.78	42% 291-395 (686)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Tallon Griekspooravg 31.5¢	$29.13	$46.56	+$17.43	50% 4488-4425 (8913)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 44¢	$37.74	$37.74	+$0	53% 3134-2769 (5903)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 53¢	$7.95	$6.6	-$1.35	47% 2177-2478 (4655)

zxc368

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$9,020.45

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$4.51

Record

99%

12843-194 (13037)

VeryLucky888

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$1,737.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$216.33

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$842.07

Value

$738.29

PnL

-$103.78

Record

42%

291-395 (686)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$29.13

Value

$46.56

PnL

+$17.43

Record

50%

4488-4425 (8913)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$37.74

Value

$37.74

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3134-2769 (5903)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$7.95

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$1.35

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Zverev at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Zverev

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Zverev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alexander Zverev) and the top 1000 (4 on Tallon Griekspoor) disagree here.

ctrAlexander Zverev 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexander Zverev 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tallon Griekspoor 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Zverev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.