Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Zverev (60%) · Alexander Zverev at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Alexander Zverev
5
Alexander Zverev 60%
$2.0K
-$38.07
77.1¢ → 75.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexander Zverev at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Alexander Zverevavg 77.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$41.28 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Alexander Zverevavg 76¢ | $48.69 | $50.93 | +$2.24 | 65% 1690-913 (2603) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Tallon Griekspooravg 20¢ | $22.34 | $22.9 | +$0.56 | 62% 13674-8506 (22180) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Alexander Zverevavg 76.5¢ | $7.65 | $7.95 | +$0.3 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Tallon Griekspooravg 16¢ | $0.38 | $0.49 | +$0.11 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,924.43
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$41.28
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$48.69
Value
$50.93
PnL
+$2.24
Record
65%
1690-913 (2603)
Invested
$22.34
Value
$22.9
PnL
+$0.56
Record
62%
13674-8506 (22180)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0.3
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.49
PnL
+$0.11
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.