Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arthur Fery, while the market favors Alexander Zverev (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Game Spread: Alexander Zverev (-4.5) vs Arthur Fery (+4.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fery (50%) · Arthur Fery at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 6

Alexander Zverev>99¢Arthur Fery<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arthur Fery

Consensus Traders

Arthur Fery 50%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$124.22

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidArthur Fery at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fery

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Zverev 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Zverev100%

Arthur Fery0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Zverev3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,920

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Arthur Fery3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares6,366

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Alexander Zverev — 50%Arthur Fery — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fery. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arthur Fery) and the top 1000 (4 on Alexander Zverev) disagree here.

ctrAlexander Zverev 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Fery 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Zverev 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Alexander Zverevavg 49¢	$4.5K	$4.1K	+$1.9K	50% 2499-2487 (4986)
VeryLucky888CTR	Arthur Feryavg 48¢	$657.2	$691.97	+$40.94	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
JU Justluck9CTR	Arthur Feryavg 51¢	$4.9K	$519.68	$-2.0K	41% 92-133 (225)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Alexander Zverevavg 49.5¢	$135.93	$274.49	+$138.56	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Alexander Zverevavg 48¢	$48	$99.95	+$51.95	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
poshposhCTR<$100	Arthur Feryavg 51¢	$57.53	$37.79	+$11.13	59% 9935-6911 (16846)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$4,544.87

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

50%

2499-2487 (4986)

VeryLucky888CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$657.2

Value

$691.97

PnL

+$40.94

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

Justluck9CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$4,949.36

Value

$519.68

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

41%

92-133 (225)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$135.93

Value

$274.49

PnL

+$138.56

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

topdogbigboi<$100

Alexander Zverev

Invested

$48

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$51.95

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

poshposhCTR<$100

Arthur Fery

Invested

$57.53

Value

$37.79

PnL

+$11.13

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

Research grade

AvoidArthur Fery at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fery

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Zverev 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fery. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arthur Fery) and the top 1000 (4 on Alexander Zverev) disagree here.

ctrAlexander Zverev 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Fery 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Zverev 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Fery wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.