Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fery
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Zverev (75%) · Alexander Zverev at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Alexander Zverev
4
Alexander Zverev 75%
$1.1K
-$1.61
84.9¢ → 85.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexander Zverev at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Alexander Zverevavg 84.9¢ | $932.67 | $939.68 | +$7 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR | Arthur Feryavg 15.5¢ | $137.74 | $120.03 | -$8.81 | 58% 218-156 (374) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Alexander Zverevavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $42.75 | +$0.25 | 55% 5712-4750 (10462) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Alexander Zverevavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.25 | -$0.05 | 47% 2255-2545 (4800) |
Invested
$932.67
Value
$939.68
PnL
+$7
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$137.74
Value
$120.03
PnL
-$8.81
Record
58%
218-156 (374)
Invested
$42.5
Value
$42.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
55%
5712-4750 (10462)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2255-2545 (4800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.