Villa Maria: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzalo Villanueva (44%) · Gonzalo Villanueva at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Carlos Maria Zarate41¢Gonzalo Villanueva59¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gonzalo Villanueva

Consensus Traders

Gonzalo Villanueva 44%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$26.72

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 59.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGonzalo Villanueva at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gonzalo Villanueva

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carlos Maria Zarate41%

Gonzalo Villanueva60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gonzalo Villanueva4 traders

Total Value$787.2

Total Shares1,324

Combined PnL+$36.31

Carlos Maria Zarate5 traders

Total Value$777.45

Total Shares1,878

Combined PnL-$9.58

Gonzalo Villanueva — 44%Carlos Maria Zarate — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 56¢	$594.72	$631.89	+$37.17	50% 495-491 (986)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 40¢	$322.92	$335.04	+$4.04	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 40.4¢	$225.43	$231.55	+$0.52	61% 13846-8751 (22597)
OM omnibus-076daa	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 60¢	$128.31	$127.24	-$1.07	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
nigiri99CTR	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 41.5¢	$116.94	$117.04	-$2.73	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 46¢	$93.84	$82.62	-$11.22	54% 484-419 (903)
0xheavy888<$100	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 59.5¢	$19.53	$19.36	-$0.17	56% 7461-5982 (13443)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 41.7¢	$11.26	$11.21	-$0.19	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
VeryLucky888<$100	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 59¢	$26.33	$8.71	+$0.37	58% 43600-31711 (75311)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$594.72

Value

$631.89

PnL

+$37.17

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

UpTheBluesCTR

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$322.92

Value

$335.04

PnL

+$4.04

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

LilybaeumCTR

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$225.43

Value

$231.55

PnL

+$0.52

Record

61%

13846-8751 (22597)

omnibus-076daa

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$128.31

Value

$127.24

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

nigiri99CTR

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$116.94

Value

$117.04

PnL

-$2.73

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$93.84

Value

$82.62

PnL

-$11.22

Record

54%

484-419 (903)

0xheavy888<$100

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$19.53

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$0.17

Record

56%

7461-5982 (13443)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$11.26

Value

$11.21

PnL

-$0.19

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

VeryLucky888<$100

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$26.33

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0.37

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

Research grade

NeutralGonzalo Villanueva at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gonzalo Villanueva

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gonzalo Villanueva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.