Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alan Magadan, while the market favors Carlos Maria Zarate (66%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guayaquil: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Alan Magadan

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alan Magadan (44%) · Alan Magadan at 34¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Carlos Maria Zarate66¢Alan Magadan34¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alan Magadan

Consensus Traders

Alan Magadan 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$530.81

Smart Money Entry

20.8¢ → 34¢

+63% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlan Magadan at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alan Magadan

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Carlos Maria Zarate 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Carlos Maria Zarate66%

Alan Magadan34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alan Magadan4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,999

Combined PnL+$543.18

Carlos Maria Zarate5 traders

Total Value$519.15

Total Shares653

Combined PnL-$12.37

Alan Magadan — 44%Carlos Maria Zarate — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Alan Magadanavg 20.8¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$541.08	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Alan Magadanavg 30.8¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$178.5	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
└ Alan Magadan leg	Alan Magadanavg 30.8¢	$933	$1.3K	+$356.17
└ Carlos Maria Zarate leg	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 75.4¢	$748.04	$570.37	-$177.67
1L 1lovejump	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 80.9¢	$395.9	$182.03	-$35.7	54% 630-547 (1177)
BI BillBenter2026	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 81.5¢	$112.44	$115.23	+$2.79	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
NA NatoAlfista	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 65¢	$102.7	$105.86	+$2.37	50% 3715-3689 (7404)
VeryLucky888	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 66¢	$125.98	$96.08	+$18.02	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
0xheavy888<$100	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 66¢	$19.8	$19.95	+$0.15	56% 6915-5529 (12444)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 20.6¢	$11.99	$12.49	+$0.5	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 18¢	$1.8	$3.3	+$1.5	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 26¢	$1.75	$1.85	+$0.1	52% 5875-5510 (11385)

UpTheBluesCTR

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1,805.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$541.08

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1,681.04

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$178.5

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

Both legs:

Alan Magadan$93330.8¢+$356.17

Carlos Maria Zarate$748.0475.4¢-$177.67

1lovejump

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$395.9

Value

$182.03

PnL

-$35.7

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

BillBenter2026

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$112.44

Value

$115.23

PnL

+$2.79

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

NatoAlfista

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$102.7

Value

$105.86

PnL

+$2.37

Record

50%

3715-3689 (7404)

VeryLucky888

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$125.98

Value

$96.08

PnL

+$18.02

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

0xheavy888<$100

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

6915-5529 (12444)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$11.99

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1.8

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$1.5

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

Research grade

NeutralAlan Magadan at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alan Magadan

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Carlos Maria Zarate 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alan Magadan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.