Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yi Zhou, while the market favors Elias Ymer (57%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ningbo: Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yi Zhou (44%) · Yi Zhou at 43¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 3

Elias Ymer57¢Yi Zhou43¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yi Zhou

Consensus Traders

Yi Zhou 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

24.3¢ → 42.5¢

+75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYi Zhou at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yi Zhou

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Elias Ymer 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Elias Ymer57%

Yi Zhou43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yi Zhou4 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares31,314

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Elias Ymer5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,687

Combined PnL+$80.69

Yi Zhou — 44%Elias Ymer — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Yi Zhouavg 22.2¢	$5.4K	$7.1K	+$1.7K	72% 936-365 (1301)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Elias Ymeravg 70.1¢	$5.7K	$5.2K	-$437.96	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
└ Elias Ymer leg	Elias Ymeravg 70.1¢	$4.3K	$3.5K	-$768.28
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 34.4¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$330.32
EF efntrickARB<$100	Elias Ymeravg 60.6¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$18.22	48% 3606-3861 (7467)
└ Elias Ymer leg	Elias Ymeravg 60.6¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$536.67
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 37.8¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$518.45
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elias Ymeravg 72.6¢	$5.0K	$3.9K	$-1.1K	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
└ Elias Ymer leg	Elias Ymeravg 72.6¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	$-1.3K
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 46.8¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$187.11
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Elias Ymeravg 58.3¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	+$197.35	60% 3888-2641 (6529)
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 36.3¢	$978.43	$1.4K	+$434.95
└ Elias Ymer leg	Elias Ymeravg 58.3¢	$1.1K	$870.99	-$237.6
88MCTR	Yi Zhouavg 35.8¢	$1.3K	$974.47	-$368.57	42% 768-1070 (1838)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Elias Ymeravg 71¢	$710	$740	+$30	51% 1195-1129 (2324)
poshposh	Elias Ymeravg 78¢	$237.46	$226.74	-$10.72	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yi Zhouavg 55¢	$217.35	$215.37	-$1.98	49% 18385-18813 (37198)
BI BillBenter2026	Elias Ymeravg 58.9¢	$122.59	$153.92	+$31.33	58% 18292-13443 (31735)
PA pauleta23<$100	Elias Ymeravg 73.3¢	$79.99	$80.7	+$1.26	67% 23017-11419 (34436)
VeryLucky888	Elias Ymeravg 31¢	$100.23	$54.22	+$28.83	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 52.1¢	$4.59	$3.9	-$0.69	54% 2551-2184 (4735)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$5,358.09

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

72%

936-365 (1301)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$5,675.55

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$437.96

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

Both legs:

Elias Ymer$4,273.8870.1¢-$768.28

Yi Zhou$1,401.6734.4¢+$330.32

efntrickARB<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$4,884.5

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$18.22

Record

48%

3606-3861 (7467)

Both legs:

Elias Ymer$3,217.5660.6¢-$536.67

Yi Zhou$1,666.9437.8¢+$518.45

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$5,006.96

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

Both legs:

Elias Ymer$3,690.8372.6¢$-1.3K

Yi Zhou$1,316.1346.8¢+$187.11

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$2,466.76

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$197.35

Record

60%

3888-2641 (6529)

Both legs:

Yi Zhou$978.4336.3¢+$434.95

Elias Ymer$1,068.8358.3¢-$237.6

88MCTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$1,343.05

Value

$974.47

PnL

-$368.57

Record

42%

768-1070 (1838)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Elias Ymer

Invested

$710

Value

$740

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

1195-1129 (2324)

poshposh

Elias Ymer

Invested

$237.46

Value

$226.74

PnL

-$10.72

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$217.35

Value

$215.37

PnL

-$1.98

Record

49%

18385-18813 (37198)

BillBenter2026

Elias Ymer

Invested

$122.59

Value

$153.92

PnL

+$31.33

Record

58%

18292-13443 (31735)

pauleta23<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$79.99

Value

$80.7

PnL

+$1.26

Record

67%

23017-11419 (34436)

VeryLucky888

Elias Ymer

Invested

$100.23

Value

$54.22

PnL

+$28.83

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$4.59

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.69

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Research grade

NeutralYi Zhou at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yi Zhou

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Elias Ymer 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yi Zhou wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.