Hersonissos 3: Ioannis Xilas vs Sergey Fomin
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Ioannis Xilas (25%) · Ioannis Xilas at 65¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Ioannis Xilas
4
Ioannis Xilas 25%
$182.08
-$2.25
Research grade
NeutralIoannis Xilas at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Ioannis Xilasavg 65.8¢ | $112.08 | $109.02 | -$3.06 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Sergey Fominavg 34¢ | $41.91 | $43.14 | +$1.23 | 34% 158-308 (466) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Sergey Fominavg 35¢ | $14.99 | $14.99 | +$0 | 24% 196-614 (810) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Sergey Fominavg 36¢ | $15.34 | $14.92 | -$0.43 | 48% 391-428 (819) |
0xheavy888Invested
$112.08
Value
$109.02
PnL
-$3.06
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
Invested
$41.91
Value
$43.14
PnL
+$1.23
Record
34%
158-308 (466)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
196-614 (810)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$14.92
PnL
-$0.43
Record
48%
391-428 (819)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.