Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Linang Xiao, while the market favors Jie Cui (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ningbo: Linang Xiao vs Jie Cui

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Linang Xiao (57%) · Linang Xiao at 0.1¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 3

Linang Xiao<1¢Jie Cui>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Linang Xiao

Consensus Traders

Linang Xiao 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$195.56

Combined PnL

-$54.21

Research grade

AvoidLinang Xiao at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Linang Xiao

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Jie Cui 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Linang Xiao0%

Jie Cui100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Linang Xiao4 traders

Total Value$40.06

Total Shares832

Combined PnL-$45.65

Jie Cui3 traders

Total Value$50.46

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$8.56

Linang Xiao — 57%Jie Cui — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Linang Xiaoavg 15.3¢	$135.16	$105.05	-$30.11	48% 3603-3856 (7459)
└ Jie Cui leg	Jie Cuiavg 75¢	$48.75	$59.8	+$11.05
└ Linang Xiao leg	Linang Xiaoavg 15.3¢	$86.41	$45.25	-$41.16
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Linang Xiaoavg 22.5¢	$43.26	$30.72	-$12.54	50% 3672-3638 (7310)
TH thestingsnake	Jie Cuiavg 95.4¢	$119.8	$21.47	-$7.43	60% 3881-2639 (6520)
PA pauleta23<$100	Jie Cuiavg 88.5¢	$20	$18.99	-$1.01	67% 23013-11416 (34429)
TRCM<$100	Jie Cuiavg 85¢	$10.12	$10	-$0.12	56% 3890-3119 (7009)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Linang Xiaoavg 6.6¢	$38.25	$5.81	-$32.44	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Linang Xiaoavg 7¢	$2	$1.86	-$0.14	59% 29915-20638 (50553)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Linang Xiaoavg 4¢	$2.2	$1.67	-$0.53	54% 2548-2180 (4728)

efntrickARB<$100

Linang Xiao

Invested

$135.16

Value

$105.05

PnL

-$30.11

Record

48%

3603-3856 (7459)

Both legs:

Jie Cui$48.7575¢+$11.05

Linang Xiao$86.4115.3¢-$41.16

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Linang Xiao

Invested

$43.26

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$12.54

Record

50%

3672-3638 (7310)

thestingsnake

Jie Cui

Invested

$119.8

Value

$21.47

PnL

-$7.43

Record

60%

3881-2639 (6520)

pauleta23<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$20

Value

$18.99

PnL

-$1.01

Record

67%

23013-11416 (34429)

TRCM<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

3890-3119 (7009)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Linang Xiao

Invested

$38.25

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$32.44

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Linang Xiao

Invested

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.14

Record

59%

29915-20638 (50553)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Linang Xiao

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.53

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

Research grade

AvoidLinang Xiao at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Linang Xiao

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Jie Cui 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Linang Xiao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.