Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Daniel Milavsky, while the market favors J.J. Wolf (84%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sioux Falls: J.J. Wolf vs Daniel Milavsky

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (25%) · Daniel Milavsky at 17¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

J.J. Wolf84¢Daniel Milavsky16¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Daniel Milavsky

Consensus Traders

Daniel Milavsky 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$284.99

Smart Money Entry

36.7¢ → 16.5¢

-55% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidDaniel Milavsky at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors J.J. Wolf 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

J.J. Wolf84%

Daniel Milavsky17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Milavsky2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,256

Combined PnL-$133.73

J.J. Wolf6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL-$151.27

Daniel Milavsky — 25%J.J. Wolf — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 37.1¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$132.83	38% 477-787 (1264)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	J.J. Wolfavg 79.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$6.68	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
└ J.J. Wolf leg	J.J. Wolfavg 79.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$113.3
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 23¢	$775.83	$895.81	+$119.98
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	J.J. Wolfavg 60.5¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$318.92	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
└ J.J. Wolf leg	J.J. Wolfavg 60.5¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$215.8
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 23.3¢	$457.48	$560.6	+$103.12
TH thestingsnake	J.J. Wolfavg 77.9¢	$942.45	$840.95	-$101.5	60% 3967-2670 (6637)
1L 1lovejump	J.J. Wolfavg 79¢	$430.73	$341.35	-$73.61	54% 630-547 (1177)
poshposh	J.J. Wolfavg 63¢	$189	$193.5	+$4.5	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	J.J. Wolfavg 64¢	$81.28	$80.65	-$0.64	61% 1722-1084 (2806)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 18¢	$32.38	$31.48	-$0.9	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
tradecraft<$100	J.J. Wolfavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.23	+$0.82	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
SC SchruteBucks	J.J. Wolfavg 72.4¢	$141.97	$2.53	+$19.15	56% 1811-1413 (3224)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$132.83

Record

38%

477-787 (1264)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$2,352.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$6.68

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Both legs:

J.J. Wolf$1,577.0579.2¢-$113.3

Daniel Milavsky$775.8323¢+$119.98

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$1,645.56

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$318.92

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

Both legs:

J.J. Wolf$1,188.0860.5¢+$215.8

Daniel Milavsky$457.4823.3¢+$103.12

thestingsnake

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$942.45

Value

$840.95

PnL

-$101.5

Record

60%

3967-2670 (6637)

1lovejump

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$430.73

Value

$341.35

PnL

-$73.61

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

poshposh

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$189

Value

$193.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

0x1111111111<$100

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$81.28

Value

$80.65

PnL

-$0.64

Record

61%

1722-1084 (2806)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$32.38

Value

$31.48

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

tradecraft<$100

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.82

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

SchruteBucks

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$141.97

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$19.15

Record

56%

1811-1413 (3224)

Research grade

AvoidDaniel Milavsky at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors J.J. Wolf 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Milavsky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.