Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Marek Gengel, while the market favors Michael Vrbensky (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bratislava 2: Michael Vrbensky vs Marek Gengel
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Marek Gengel (86%) · Marek Gengel at 0.1¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Marek Gengel
7
Marek Gengel 86%
$263.48
-$436.88
32.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidMarek Gengel at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Michael Vrbensky 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Marek Gengelavg 17.3¢ | $171.3 | $173.25 | +$1.95 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
 poshposh<$100 | Michael Vrbenskyavg 92¢ | $34.85 | $37.69 | +$2.84 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Marek Gengelavg 22.2¢ | $40.88 | $35.9 | -$4.98 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Marek Gengelavg 53¢ | $10.34 | $7.99 | -$2.34 | 52% 13925-12698 (26623) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Marek Gengelavg 11¢ | $6.52 | $4.71 | -$1.81 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Marek Gengelavg 71¢ | $426 | $2.73 | -$422.73 | 60% 4102-2764 (6866) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Marek Gengelavg 7.4¢ | $10.53 | $0.71 | -$9.82 | 55% 3961-3189 (7150) |
RN1CTRInvested
$171.3
Value
$173.25
PnL
+$1.95
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
poshposh<$100Invested
$34.85
Value
$37.69
PnL
+$2.84
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$40.88
Value
$35.9
PnL
-$4.98
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$7.99
PnL
-$2.34
Record
52%
13925-12698 (26623)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.52
Value
$4.71
PnL
-$1.81
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$426
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$422.73
Record
60%
4102-2764 (6866)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$10.53
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$9.82
Record
55%
3961-3189 (7150)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.