Guayaquil: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Lautaro Midon

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lautaro Midon (90%) · Lautaro Midon at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2

Gonzalo Villanueva<1¢Lautaro Midon>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lautaro Midon

Consensus Traders

Lautaro Midon 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$830.14

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLautaro Midon at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lautaro Midon

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gonzalo Villanueva0%

Lautaro Midon100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lautaro Midon9 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares9,092

Combined PnL+$792.01

Gonzalo Villanueva1 trader

Total Value$77.49

Total Shares246

Combined PnL+$38.13

Lautaro Midon — 90%Gonzalo Villanueva — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Lautaro Midonavg 85¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$510.06	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
GA GamblingOdyssey	Lautaro Midonavg 66¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$62.5	51% 837-790 (1627)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Lautaro Midonavg 79¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$262.14	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lautaro Midonavg 79¢	$620.07	$631.84	+$11.77	54% 16741-14048 (30789)
UP UpTheBlues	Lautaro Midonavg 94.4¢	$540.6	$463.7	-$76.9	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
VeryLucky888	Lautaro Midonavg 65¢	$249.84	$110.71	+$8.02	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 82.5¢	$142.66	$102.25	+$1.09	53% 584-515 (1099)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 82.5¢	$82.68	$81.66	-$0.78
└ Gonzalo Villanueva leg	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 16.8¢	$18.73	$20.6	+$1.87
TRCMCTR<$100	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 16¢	$39.36	$77.49	+$38.13	55% 3895-3129 (7024)
EF efntrick<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 79.9¢	$55.9	$57.05	+$1.15	48% 3618-3875 (7493)
HRTrading<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 82.2¢	$39.48	$47.98	+$8.5	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
tradecraft<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 75.5¢	$40.01	$44.79	+$4.77	52% 5822-5445 (11267)

RN1

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$2,900

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$510.06

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

GamblingOdyssey

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$62.5

Record

51%

837-790 (1627)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,288.85

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$262.14

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

HomeRunHazard

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$620.07

Value

$631.84

PnL

+$11.77

Record

54%

16741-14048 (30789)

UpTheBlues

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$540.6

Value

$463.7

PnL

-$76.9

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

VeryLucky888

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$249.84

Value

$110.71

PnL

+$8.02

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$142.66

Value

$102.25

PnL

+$1.09

Record

53%

584-515 (1099)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$82.6882.5¢-$0.78

Gonzalo Villanueva$18.7316.8¢+$1.87

TRCMCTR<$100

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$39.36

Value

$77.49

PnL

+$38.13

Record

55%

3895-3129 (7024)

efntrick<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$55.9

Value

$57.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

3618-3875 (7493)

HRTrading<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$39.48

Value

$47.98

PnL

+$8.5

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

tradecraft<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$40.01

Value

$44.79

PnL

+$4.77

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

Research grade

NeutralLautaro Midon at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Lautaro Midon

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lautaro Midon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.