Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Denis Klok — but Ian Luca Vertberger won instead.
Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok
Resolved Ian Luca Vertberger. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Denis Klok. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Denis Klok 78%
4 arb excluded
$21.7K
$-10.7K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8 | Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 74.1¢ | $9.5K | $12.8K | +$3.3K | 57% 82-61 (143) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Denis Klokavg 36¢ | $51.5K | $7.0K | $-44.5K | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
| └ Ian Luca Vertberger leg | Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 92.2¢ | $6.4K | $7.0K | +$546.05 | |
| └ Denis Klok leg | Denis Klokavg 36¢ | $45.0K | — | $-45.0K | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Denis Klokavg 38.4¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | 59% 30677-21391 (52068) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Denis Klokavg 22.1¢ | $10.4K | $667.98 | $-9.8K | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
| └ Denis Klok leg | Denis Klokavg 22.1¢ | $9.9K | — | $-9.9K | |
| └ Ian Luca Vertberger leg | Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 76.8¢ | $512.78 | $667.98 | +$155.2 | |
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100 | Denis Klokavg 43.3¢ | $2.5K | $797.99 | $-1.4K | 60% 4104-2765 (6869) |
| └ Ian Luca Vertberger leg | Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 85.4¢ | $681.87 | $797.99 | +$87.69 | |
| └ Denis Klok leg | Denis Klokavg 43.3¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Denis Klokavg 30.3¢ | $9.6K | — | $-9.6K | 48% 1065-1165 (2230) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Denis Klokavg 27.9¢ | $1.1K | $300 | -$842.63 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
| └ Ian Luca Vertberger leg | Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 97¢ | $291 | $300 | +$9 | |
| └ Denis Klok leg | Denis Klokavg 27.9¢ | $851.63 | — | -$851.63 | |
BI BillBenter2026 | Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 89.5¢ | $270.98 | $163 | -$107.98 | 58% 18783-13847 (32630) |
FO fortunekingCTR | Denis Klokavg 22¢ | $440 | — | -$440 | 59% 783-549 (1332) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Denis Klokavg 30.7¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
 HRTradingCTR | Denis Klokavg 29.3¢ | $247.58 | — | -$247.58 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Denis Klokavg 64¢ | $52.68 | — | -$48.23 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Denis Klokavg 42.3¢ | $24.9 | — | +$2.59 | 85% 5885-1004 (6889) |
Invested
$9,511.44
Value
$12.8K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
57%
82-61 (143)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$51,467
Value
$7.0K
PnL
$-44.5K
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,887.54
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
59%
30677-21391 (52068)
Invested
$10,432.59
Value
$667.98
PnL
$-9.8K
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,453
Value
$797.99
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
4104-2765 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$9,597.65
Value
—
PnL
$-9.6K
Record
48%
1065-1165 (2230)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$1,142.63
Value
$300
PnL
-$842.63
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.98
Value
$163
PnL
-$107.98
Record
58%
18783-13847 (32630)
Invested
$440
Value
—
PnL
-$440
Record
59%
783-549 (1332)
Invested
$1,680.04
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$247.58
Value
—
PnL
-$247.58
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$52.68
Value
—
PnL
-$48.23
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$24.9
Value
—
PnL
+$2.59
Record
85%
5885-1004 (6889)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8
Ian Luca Vertberger — $12.8K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRDenis Klok — $0
UpTheBlues
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thestingsnake
ARBArbitrage — excluded
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRDenis Klok — $0
poshposh
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BillBenter2026
Ian Luca Vertberger — $163
fortuneking
CTRDenis Klok — $0
omnibus-076daa
CTRDenis Klok — $0