Guayaquil: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Rodrigo Pacheco
14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Rodrigo Pacheco (78%) · Rodrigo Pacheco at 100¢ · $77K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Rodrigo Pacheco
18
Rodrigo Pacheco 78%
$76.9K
$314.91
89.2¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
NeutralRodrigo Pacheco at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Rodrigo Pacheco. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 01258787xy48487484545122 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 90.1¢ | $49.4K | $52.1K | +$2.7K | 64% 256-147 (403) |
 RN1 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 95.4¢ | $11.8K | $10.9K | -$854.77 | 54% 55371-47422 (102793) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 95.7¢ | $6.3K | $5.8K | -$452.79 | 52% 13496-12350 (25846) |
GA GamblingOdyssey | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 48¢ | $2.1K | $1.8K | -$261.45 | 51% 837-790 (1627) |
LO looppau | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.56 | 99% 10403-48 (10451) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Juan Pablo Varillasavg 52¢ | $999.99 | $1.1K | +$115.44 | 49% 3889-4079 (7968) |
YE yesmate | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 94.9¢ | $2.4K | $1.1K | $-1.3K | 52% 348-326 (674) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Juan Pablo Varillasavg 52¢ | $947.25 | $1.1K | +$109.3 | 51% 3888-3804 (7692) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Juan Pablo Varillasavg 13¢ | $188 | $838.77 | +$650.77 | 54% 16747-14056 (30803) |
 HRTrading | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 95¢ | $320.27 | $334.56 | +$14.29 | 54% 2625-2252 (4877) |
 poshposh | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 95.7¢ | $320.1 | $300 | -$20.1 | 60% 9127-6066 (15193) |
1L 1lovejump | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 95.7¢ | $402.99 | $216.31 | -$28.97 | 53% 586-525 (1111) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 44.6¢ | $73.65 | $79.32 | +$4.84 | 58% 27876-20518 (48394) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 95¢ | $38 | $38.78 | +$0.78 | 50% 2533-2576 (5109) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 90¢ | $49.99 | $23.33 | -$26.66 | 58% 5730-4207 (9937) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 76.6¢ | $40.07 | $20.09 | -$4.96 | 48% 3627-3878 (7505) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Rodrigo Pachecoavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $4.2 | -$1.7 | 52% 5829-5447 (11276) |
SE sentrioCTR | Juan Pablo Varillasavg 18¢ | $266.28 | $0.74 | -$265.54 | 50% 24834-24529 (49363) |
Invested
$49,402.09
Value
$52.1K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
64%
256-147 (403)
RN1Invested
$11,795.5
Value
$10.9K
PnL
-$854.77
Record
54%
55371-47422 (102793)
Invested
$6,302.42
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$452.79
Record
52%
13496-12350 (25846)
Invested
$2,091.61
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$261.45
Record
51%
837-790 (1627)
Invested
$1,127.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.56
Record
99%
10403-48 (10451)
Invested
$999.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$115.44
Record
49%
3889-4079 (7968)
Invested
$2,415.95
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
52%
348-326 (674)
Invested
$947.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$109.3
Record
51%
3888-3804 (7692)
Invested
$188
Value
$838.77
PnL
+$650.77
Record
54%
16747-14056 (30803)
HRTradingInvested
$320.27
Value
$334.56
PnL
+$14.29
Record
54%
2625-2252 (4877)
poshposhInvested
$320.1
Value
$300
PnL
-$20.1
Record
60%
9127-6066 (15193)
Invested
$402.99
Value
$216.31
PnL
-$28.97
Record
53%
586-525 (1111)
Invested
$73.65
Value
$79.32
PnL
+$4.84
Record
58%
27876-20518 (48394)
Invested
$38
Value
$38.78
PnL
+$0.78
Record
50%
2533-2576 (5109)
Invested
$49.99
Value
$23.33
PnL
-$26.66
Record
58%
5730-4207 (9937)
Invested
$40.07
Value
$20.09
PnL
-$4.96
Record
48%
3627-3878 (7505)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$5.9
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$1.7
Record
52%
5829-5447 (11276)
Invested
$266.28
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$265.54
Record
50%
24834-24529 (49363)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
01258787xy48487484545122
Rodrigo Pacheco — $52.1K
RN1
Rodrigo Pacheco — $10.9K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Rodrigo Pacheco — $5.8K
GamblingOdyssey
Rodrigo Pacheco — $1.8K
looppau
Rodrigo Pacheco — $1.1K
Notradecopy
CTRJuan Pablo Varillas — $1.1K
yesmate
Rodrigo Pacheco — $1.1K
GamblingAddict12345
CTRJuan Pablo Varillas — $1.1K
HomeRunHazard
CTRJuan Pablo Varillas — $838.77
HRTrading
Rodrigo Pacheco — $334.56