Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Stefan Latinovic

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Stefan Latinovic (75%) · Stefan Latinovic at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Cyril Vandermeersch48¢Stefan Latinovic52¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Stefan Latinovic

Consensus Traders

Stefan Latinovic 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$32.32

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 52¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateStefan Latinovic at 52%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Latinovic

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cyril Vandermeersch48%

Stefan Latinovic52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cyril Vandermeersch3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,166

Combined PnL+$31.25

Stefan Latinovic9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,862

Combined PnL+$1.07

Cyril Vandermeersch — 25%Stefan Latinovic — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Stefan Latinovic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpStefan Latinovic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrStefan Latinovic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Stefan Latinovic 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ Stefan Latinovic leg	Stefan Latinovicavg 50¢	$525	$577.5	+$52.5
└ Cyril Vandermeersch leg	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 50¢	$525	$472.5	-$52.5
TH thirdt1meCTR	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 46.4¢	$674.69	$685.47	+$30.48	48% 371-403 (774)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 50¢	$325.69	$325.69	+$0	46% 621-730 (1351)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Stefan Latinovicavg 41¢	$234.53	$310.96	+$76.43	49% 629-659 (1288)
LI LightParadox	Stefan Latinovicavg 49.5¢	$397.7	$307.56	+$20.11	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
MA MadridTime	Stefan Latinovicavg 58.3¢	$296.26	$267.36	-$28.9	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Stefan Latinovicavg 54.9¢	$339.81	$244.93	-$0.4	34% 264-519 (783)
└ Stefan Latinovic leg	Stefan Latinovicavg 54.9¢	$145.48	$148.51	-$0.39
└ Cyril Vandermeersch leg	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 44.8¢	$98.16	$96.42	-$0.01
VE Venusian	Stefan Latinovicavg 52.8¢	$363.09	$222.82	-$39.83	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
TH thestingsnake	Stefan Latinovicavg 53¢	$252.21	$209.17	-$37.8	36% 247-448 (695)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Stefan Latinovicavg 50¢	$117.5	$117.5	+$0	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 44.7¢	$108.09	$109.9	+$1.81	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
└ Cyril Vandermeersch leg	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 44.7¢	$64.48	$64.85	+$0.37
└ Stefan Latinovic leg	Stefan Latinovicavg 53.2¢	$43.61	$45.06	+$1.45
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 47.6¢	$73.69	$58.92	+$0.77	46% 467-554 (1021)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Stefan Latinovicavg 54¢	$44.51	$44.95	+$0.44	53% 212-190 (402)
38 38791873984189	Stefan Latinovicavg 50¢	$360.07	$34.79	+$10.22	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Stefan Latinovicavg 53¢	$11.42	$11.82	+$0.4	83% 960-199 (1159)

NotJumpARB<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

Stefan Latinovic$52550¢+$52.5

Cyril Vandermeersch$52550¢-$52.5

thirdt1meCTR

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$674.69

Value

$685.47

PnL

+$30.48

Record

48%

371-403 (774)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$325.69

Value

$325.69

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

CandleHammerDrums

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$234.53

Value

$310.96

PnL

+$76.43

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

LightParadox

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$397.7

Value

$307.56

PnL

+$20.11

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

MadridTime

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$296.26

Value

$267.36

PnL

-$28.9

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

babybellsARB<$100

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$339.81

Value

$244.93

PnL

-$0.4

Record

34%

264-519 (783)

Both legs:

Stefan Latinovic$145.4854.9¢-$0.39

Cyril Vandermeersch$98.1644.8¢-$0.01

Venusian

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$363.09

Value

$222.82

PnL

-$39.83

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

thestingsnake

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$252.21

Value

$209.17

PnL

-$37.8

Record

36%

247-448 (695)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$117.5

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

LimousinARB<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$108.09

Value

$109.9

PnL

+$1.81

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

Both legs:

Cyril Vandermeersch$64.4844.7¢+$0.37

Stefan Latinovic$43.6153.2¢+$1.45

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$73.69

Value

$58.92

PnL

+$0.77

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

Eulhunter<$100

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$44.51

Value

$44.95

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

212-190 (402)

38791873984189

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$360.07

Value

$34.79

PnL

+$10.22

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Stefan Latinovic

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$0.4

Record

83%

960-199 (1159)

Research grade

Research candidateStefan Latinovic at 52%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Latinovic

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Stefan Latinovic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpStefan Latinovic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrStefan Latinovic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Stefan Latinovic 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stefan Latinovic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.