Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cyril Vandermeersch, while the market favors Alibek Kachmazov (51%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cyril Vandermeersch (42%) · Cyril Vandermeersch at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Cyril Vandermeersch50¢Alibek Kachmazov50¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cyril Vandermeersch

Consensus Traders

Cyril Vandermeersch 42%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$87.43

Smart Money Entry

38.4¢ → 49.5¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyril Vandermeersch at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cyril Vandermeersch

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Alibek Kachmazov 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cyril Vandermeersch50%

Alibek Kachmazov51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cyril Vandermeersch5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,418

Combined PnL+$441.6

Alibek Kachmazov7 traders

Total Value$924.56

Total Shares1,831

Combined PnL-$354.17

Cyril Vandermeersch — 42%Alibek Kachmazov — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NI NinjaSquirtleCTR	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 39.6¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$404.29	—
EF efntrick	Alibek Kachmazovavg 71¢	$727.8	$517.63	-$210.17	45% 110-134 (244)
GA Gaditima	Alibek Kachmazovavg 70¢	$350	$252.5	-$97.5	49% 380-398 (778)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 25.5¢	$35.04	$68.02	+$32.98	37% 1308-2191 (3499)
PA Pan9X<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 72.7¢	$89.43	$62.12	-$27.32	50% 2155-2179 (4334)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 24¢	$37.2	$40.3	+$3.1	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
VeryLucky888<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 73¢	$54.75	$37.88	-$16.88	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 51¢	$24.96	$24.72	-$0.24	62% 263-160 (423)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 50¢	$24.44	$24.68	+$0.24	46% 39-45 (84)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 24¢	$8.92	$9.66	+$0.74	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 73.5¢	$7.35	$5.05	-$2.3	43% 845-1130 (1975)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cyril Vandermeerschavg 22¢	$2.64	$3.12	+$0.48	38% 1316-2144 (3460)

NinjaSquirtleCTR

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$1,613.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$404.29

Record

—

efntrick

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$727.8

Value

$517.63

PnL

-$210.17

Record

45%

110-134 (244)

Gaditima

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$350

Value

$252.5

PnL

-$97.5

Record

49%

380-398 (778)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$35.04

Value

$68.02

PnL

+$32.98

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

Pan9X<$100

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$89.43

Value

$62.12

PnL

-$27.32

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$37.2

Value

$40.3

PnL

+$3.1

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

VeryLucky888<$100

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$54.75

Value

$37.88

PnL

-$16.88

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

thatsabing0<$100

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$24.96

Value

$24.72

PnL

-$0.24

Record

62%

263-160 (423)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$24.44

Value

$24.68

PnL

+$0.24

Record

46%

39-45 (84)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$8.92

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$0.74

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alibek Kachmazov

Invested

$7.35

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$2.3

Record

43%

845-1130 (1975)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cyril Vandermeersch

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.48

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

Research grade

NeutralCyril Vandermeersch at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cyril Vandermeersch

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Alibek Kachmazov 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cyril Vandermeersch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.