Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Grigor Dimitrov
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Grigor Dimitrov (44%) · Grigor Dimitrov at 53¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Grigor Dimitrov
9
Grigor Dimitrov 44%
$10.7K
-$63.35
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGrigor Dimitrov at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HY hydra1248 | Grigor Dimitrovavg 53.4¢ | $5.7K | $5.4K | -$258.25 | — 1-0 (1) |
 RN1CTR | Adolfo Vallejoavg 47¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$95.76 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Adolfo Vallejoavg 46¢ | $900.68 | $959.42 | +$58.74 | 74% 6674-2397 (9071) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Grigor Dimitrovavg 51¢ | $913.86 | $913.86 | -$0 | 73% 3585-1319 (4904) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Adolfo Vallejoavg 46¢ | $784.25 | $469.25 | +$35.88 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041 | Grigor Dimitrovavg 52¢ | $250 | $245.19 | -$4.81 | 58% 223-163 (386) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Adolfo Vallejoavg 46.3¢ | $178.47 | $188.78 | +$10.31 | 62% 13708-8572 (22280) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Grigor Dimitrovavg 53¢ | $104.03 | $103.05 | -$0.98 | 49% 19169-19561 (38730) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Adolfo Vallejoavg 49¢ | $22.08 | $22.08 | +$0 | 55% 1743-1435 (3178) |
Invested
$5,677.35
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$258.25
Record
—
1-0 (1)
RN1CTRInvested
$2,250.36
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$95.76
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$900.68
Value
$959.42
PnL
+$58.74
Record
74%
6674-2397 (9071)
Invested
$913.86
Value
$913.86
PnL
-$0
Record
73%
3585-1319 (4904)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$784.25
Value
$469.25
PnL
+$35.88
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$250
Value
$245.19
PnL
-$4.81
Record
58%
223-163 (386)
Invested
$178.47
Value
$188.78
PnL
+$10.31
Record
62%
13708-8572 (22280)
Invested
$104.03
Value
$103.05
PnL
-$0.98
Record
49%
19169-19561 (38730)
Invested
$22.08
Value
$22.08
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1743-1435 (3178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hydra1248
Grigor Dimitrov — $5.4K
RN1
CTRAdolfo Vallejo — $2.3K
AnonymousUsername
CTRAdolfo Vallejo — $959.42
JAMJAMJAM4
Grigor Dimitrov — $913.86
VeryLucky888
CTRAdolfo Vallejo — $469.25
0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041
Grigor Dimitrov — $245.19
Lilybaeum
CTRAdolfo Vallejo — $188.78
omnibus-076daa
Grigor Dimitrov — $103.05
VD721lsj4938Dk388
CTRAdolfo Vallejo — $22.08