Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ryo Tabata, while the market favors Rocco Valente (57%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Villa Maria: Rocco Valente vs Ryo Tabata
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ryo Tabata (67%) · Ryo Tabata at 43¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Ryo Tabata
9
Ryo Tabata 67%
$39.2K
$3.6K
69.8¢ → 42.5¢
-39% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralRyo Tabata at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rocco Valente 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Rocco Valenteavg 27.8¢ | $7.2K | $13.8K | +$6.6K | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
 RN1CTR | Ryo Tabataavg 66.1¢ | $14.1K | $11.8K | $-2.4K | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Ryo Tabataavg 78.1¢ | $7.4K | $6.5K | -$875.01 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525 | Rocco Valenteavg 32.6¢ | $5.6K | $6.0K | +$405.17 | 51% 102-99 (201) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Ryo Tabataavg 71¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$150.03 | 60% 4104-2765 (6869) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR | Ryo Tabataavg 86.7¢ | $125.84 | $89.87 | -$35.97 | 58% 18783-13847 (32630) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 77¢ | $19.25 | $17.25 | -$2 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 66¢ | $6.6 | $6.5 | -$0.1 | 85% 5885-1004 (6889) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Rocco Valenteavg 12¢ | $2.16 | $6.48 | +$4.32 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$7,155.64
Value
$13.8K
PnL
+$6.6K
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
RN1CTRInvested
$14,126.22
Value
$11.8K
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$7,376.34
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$875.01
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$5,613.71
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$405.17
Record
51%
102-99 (201)
Invested
$1,253.4
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$150.03
Record
60%
4104-2765 (6869)
Invested
$125.84
Value
$89.87
PnL
-$35.97
Record
58%
18783-13847 (32630)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.25
Value
$17.25
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
85%
5885-1004 (6889)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$6.48
PnL
+$4.32
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
Rocco Valente — $13.8K
RN1
CTRRyo Tabata — $11.8K
UpTheBlues
CTRRyo Tabata — $6.5K
0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525
Rocco Valente — $6.0K
thestingsnake
CTRRyo Tabata — $1.0K
BillBenter2026
CTRRyo Tabata — $89.87
VeryLucky888
CTRRyo Tabata — $17.25
ARTEM-DZYUBA
CTRRyo Tabata — $6.5
HRTrading
Rocco Valente — $6.48