Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Taylor Fritz
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (100%) · Taylor Fritz at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Taylor Fritz
4
Taylor Fritz 100%
$5.0K
$45.36
72.8¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTaylor Fritz at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA madkkee | Taylor Fritzavg 73¢ | $3.0K | $2.7K | +$13.87 | 66% 1037-529 (1566) |
 VeryLucky888 | Taylor Fritzavg 72.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | +$30.63 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 0xheavy888 | Taylor Fritzavg 73¢ | $118.99 | $119.8 | +$0.81 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Taylor Fritzavg 73¢ | $7.3 | $7.35 | +$0.05 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$3,022.08
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$13.87
Record
66%
1037-529 (1566)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,298.39
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$30.63
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
0xheavy888Invested
$118.99
Value
$119.8
PnL
+$0.81
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.