Rolex Paris Masters: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Learner Tien (75%) · Learner Tien at 55¢ · $694 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Learner Tien
4
Learner Tien 75%
$693.81
$46.1
54.4¢ → 55¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLearner Tien at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3 | Learner Tienavg 56¢ | $93.01 | $501 | +$31.03 | 45% 402-498 (900) |
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1 | Learner Tienavg 50¢ | $111.4 | $121.43 | +$10.03 | 48% 891-967 (1858) |
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9<$100 | Learner Tienavg 50¢ | $49.11 | $53.53 | +$4.42 | 48% 546-599 (1145) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Stefanos Tsitsipasavg 44¢ | $18.48 | $17.85 | +$0.63 | 57% 29497-21832 (51329) |
Invested
$93.01
Value
$501
PnL
+$31.03
Record
45%
402-498 (900)
Invested
$111.4
Value
$121.43
PnL
+$10.03
Record
48%
891-967 (1858)
Invested
$49.11
Value
$53.53
PnL
+$4.42
Record
48%
546-599 (1145)
Invested
$18.48
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$0.63
Record
57%
29497-21832 (51329)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.