Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Otto Virtanen, while the market favors Stefano Travaglia (52%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Set Handicap: Otto Virtanen (-1.5) vs Stefano Travaglia (+1.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (100%) · Otto Virtanen at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
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Neutral
Otto Virtanen
2
Otto Virtanen 100%
$1.1K
-$13.16
48.6¢ → 48¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOtto Virtanen at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Stefano Travaglia 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Otto Virtanenavg 48.5¢ | $970 | $960 | -$10 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Otto Virtanenavg 49.4¢ | $107.8 | $104.64 | -$3.16 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.