Kobe: Renta Tokuda vs Yunseong Chung

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yunseong Chung (67%) · Yunseong Chung at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Renta Tokuda50¢Yunseong Chung50¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yunseong Chung

Consensus Traders

Yunseong Chung 67%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$93.23

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 50.5¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYunseong Chung at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yunseong Chung

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Renta Tokuda50%

Yunseong Chung51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Renta Tokuda4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,472

Combined PnL+$173.39

Yunseong Chung8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,768

Combined PnL-$80.15

Renta Tokuda — 33%Yunseong Chung — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NoAddressCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 42.6¢	$783.32	$909.75	+$126.42	— 1-0 (1)
38 38791873984189	Yunseong Chungavg 59¢	$743.54	$638.46	+$0.08	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
EF efntrick	Yunseong Chungavg 58.1¢	$412.5	$365.65	-$46.85	45% 99-121 (220)
GA Gaditima	Yunseong Chungavg 57¢	$286.39	$259.14	-$27.25	49% 324-333 (657)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 39.1¢	$179.27	$227.19	+$47.92	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
PA Pan9X	Yunseong Chungavg 57¢	$184.42	$181.51	-$2.91	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Yunseong Chungavg 52.5¢	$52.5	$51.5	-$1	52% 199-181 (380)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Renta Tokudaavg 39¢	$36.66	$36.66	-$0	56% 598-472 (1070)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Renta Tokudaavg 40.2¢	$32.59	$31.63	-$0.96	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yunseong Chungavg 61.3¢	$21.23	$21.13	-$0.1	46% 558-656 (1214)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yunseong Chungavg 60¢	$12	$10.3	-$1.7	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yunseong Chungavg 60¢	$3	$2.58	-$0.42	42% 740-1034 (1774)

NoAddressCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$783.32

Value

$909.75

PnL

+$126.42

Record

—

1-0 (1)

38791873984189

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$743.54

Value

$638.46

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

efntrick

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$412.5

Value

$365.65

PnL

-$46.85

Record

45%

99-121 (220)

Gaditima

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$286.39

Value

$259.14

PnL

-$27.25

Record

49%

324-333 (657)

MadridTimeCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$179.27

Value

$227.19

PnL

+$47.92

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Pan9X

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$184.42

Value

$181.51

PnL

-$2.91

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Eulhunter<$100

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$52.5

Value

$51.5

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

199-181 (380)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$36.66

Value

$36.66

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

VenusianCTR<$100

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$32.59

Value

$31.63

PnL

-$0.96

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$21.23

Value

$21.13

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$12

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$1.7

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yunseong Chung

Invested

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.42

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralYunseong Chung at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yunseong Chung

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yunseong Chung wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.