Taipei: Tin Chen vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong (100%) · Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
6
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 100%
$3.6K
$110.82
94.3¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralMitsuki Wei Kang Leong at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 93.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$94.58 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
TH thestingsnake | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 96.3¢ | $779.22 | $798.69 | +$19.47 | 60% 4093-2759 (6852) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 93.1¢ | $154.64 | $153.11 | -$1.53 | 52% 13917-12689 (26606) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 92.7¢ | $80.29 | $82.42 | +$2.13 | 58% 18770-13836 (32606) |
 RN1<$100 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 92.2¢ | $87.14 | $81.59 | -$5.55 | 54% 57108-49373 (106481) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leongavg 89¢ | $59.47 | $6.58 | +$1.71 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
Invested
$2,344.99
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$94.58
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
Invested
$779.22
Value
$798.69
PnL
+$19.47
Record
60%
4093-2759 (6852)
Invested
$154.64
Value
$153.11
PnL
-$1.53
Record
52%
13917-12689 (26606)
Invested
$80.29
Value
$82.42
PnL
+$2.13
Record
58%
18770-13836 (32606)
RN1<$100Invested
$87.14
Value
$81.59
PnL
-$5.55
Record
54%
57108-49373 (106481)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$59.47
Value
$6.58
PnL
+$1.71
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — $2.4K
thestingsnake
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — $798.69
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — $153.11
BillBenter2026
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — $82.42
RN1
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — $81.59
VeryLucky888
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — $6.58