Erste Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Alex de Minaur
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Alex de Minaur (33%) · Alex de Minaur at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Alex de Minaur
3
Alex de Minaur 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$1.01
Research grade
NeutralAlex de Minaur at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Alex de Minauravg 51¢ | $1.5K | $612 | -$0 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Learner Tienavg 49¢ | $315.23 | $315.23 | -$0 | 65% 1664-897 (2561) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Learner Tienavg 48.8¢ | $115.13 | $116 | +$1.54 | 58% 28119-20724 (48843) |
| └ Learner Tien leg | Learner Tienavg 48.8¢ | $90.13 | $90.5 | +$1.29 | |
| └ Alex de Minaur leg | Alex de Minauravg 50¢ | $25 | $25.5 | +$0.25 | |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Learner Tienavg 49.6¢ | $88.66 | $87.65 | -$1.01 | 62% 13601-8449 (22050) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,530
Value
$612
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$315.23
Value
$315.23
PnL
-$0
Record
65%
1664-897 (2561)
Invested
$115.13
Value
$116
PnL
+$1.54
Record
58%
28119-20724 (48843)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.66
Value
$87.65
PnL
-$1.01
Record
62%
13601-8449 (22050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.