Brest: Clement Tabur vs Toby Samuel

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Tabur (67%) · Clement Tabur at 89¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 5

Clement Tabur89¢Toby Samuel11¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Tabur

Consensus Traders

Clement Tabur 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$362.4

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 88.5¢

+57% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Tabur at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Tabur

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Clement Tabur89%

Toby Samuel12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Tabur10 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares14,327

Combined PnL+$260.9

Toby Samuel5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,093

Combined PnL+$101.5

Clement Tabur — 67%Toby Samuel — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Clement Taburavg 68.7¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$142.32	54% 17005-14250 (31255)
RN1ARB<$100	Toby Samuelavg 60¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$203.49	54% 56032-48155 (104187)
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 60¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$263.34
└ Clement Tabur leg	Clement Taburavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$59.85
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Clement Taburavg 43.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$121.11	38% 479-794 (1273)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Toby Samuelavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$16.85	52% 13655-12480 (26135)
└ Clement Tabur leg	Clement Taburavg 48.9¢	$689.89	$951.52	+$261.62
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 50.9¢	$770.93	$492.46	-$278.47
UP UpTheBlues	Clement Taburavg 83.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$56.51	59% 45098-31483 (76581)
GH ghostorderCTR	Toby Samuelavg 57¢	$940.5	$981.75	+$41.25	62% 4319-2662 (6981)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Clement Taburavg 36¢	$291.89	$433.78	+$141.89	52% 368-345 (713)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Toby Samuelavg 44.5¢	$305.3	$373.96	+$68.66	49% 18820-19225 (38045)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Clement Taburavg 36¢	$300	$337.5	+$37.5	61% 120-76 (196)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Clement Taburavg 49¢	$343	$325.5	-$17.5	51% 1355-1295 (2650)
poshposh	Clement Taburavg 50.9¢	$285.65	$301.2	+$15.55	59% 9678-6667 (16345)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Toby Samuelavg 47.3¢	$228.86	$258.81	+$29.94	59% 30219-20925 (51144)
VeryLucky888CTR	Toby Samuelavg 58.4¢	$241.27	$139.02	+$6.89	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
YE yesmate	Clement Taburavg 43¢	$117.42	$118.79	+$1.37	52% 355-329 (684)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Clement Taburavg 59¢	$121.24	$101.13	-$14.17	60% 3998-2687 (6685)
└ Clement Tabur leg	Clement Taburavg 59¢	$58.94	$78.48	+$19.1
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 49.3¢	$51.96	$22.64	-$33.26
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Toby Samuelavg 58.2¢	$108.87	$63.63	-$45.25	58% 18495-13582 (32077)
HRTrading<$100	Clement Taburavg 44.1¢	$20.68	$25.62	+$4.94	52% 3691-3354 (7045)
PA pauleta23<$100	Clement Taburavg 55¢	$12.65	$12.08	-$0.57	67% 23205-11605 (34810)

HomeRunHazard

Clement Tabur

Invested

$4,709.48

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$142.32

Record

54%

17005-14250 (31255)

RN1ARB<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,902.22

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$203.49

Record

54%

56032-48155 (104187)

Both legs:

Toby Samuel$2,872.860¢-$263.34

Clement Tabur$1,029.4243¢+$59.85

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Clement Tabur

Invested

$1,899

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$121.11

Record

38%

479-794 (1273)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,460.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$16.85

Record

52%

13655-12480 (26135)

Both legs:

Clement Tabur$689.8948.9¢+$261.62

Toby Samuel$770.9350.9¢-$278.47

UpTheBlues

Clement Tabur

Invested

$1,203.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$56.51

Record

59%

45098-31483 (76581)

ghostorderCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$940.5

Value

$981.75

PnL

+$41.25

Record

62%

4319-2662 (6981)

oxe78sh4w98

Clement Tabur

Invested

$291.89

Value

$433.78

PnL

+$141.89

Record

52%

368-345 (713)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$305.3

Value

$373.96

PnL

+$68.66

Record

49%

18820-19225 (38045)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Clement Tabur

Invested

$300

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

61%

120-76 (196)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Clement Tabur

Invested

$343

Value

$325.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

51%

1355-1295 (2650)

poshposh

Clement Tabur

Invested

$285.65

Value

$301.2

PnL

+$15.55

Record

59%

9678-6667 (16345)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$228.86

Value

$258.81

PnL

+$29.94

Record

59%

30219-20925 (51144)

VeryLucky888CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$241.27

Value

$139.02

PnL

+$6.89

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

yesmate

Clement Tabur

Invested

$117.42

Value

$118.79

PnL

+$1.37

Record

52%

355-329 (684)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Clement Tabur

Invested

$121.24

Value

$101.13

PnL

-$14.17

Record

60%

3998-2687 (6685)

Both legs:

Clement Tabur$58.9459¢+$19.1

Toby Samuel$51.9649.3¢-$33.26

BillBenter2026CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$108.87

Value

$63.63

PnL

-$45.25

Record

58%

18495-13582 (32077)

HRTrading<$100

Clement Tabur

Invested

$20.68

Value

$25.62

PnL

+$4.94

Record

52%

3691-3354 (7045)

pauleta23<$100

Clement Tabur

Invested

$12.65

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$0.57

Record

67%

23205-11605 (34810)

Research grade

NeutralClement Tabur at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Tabur

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Tabur wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.