Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Alejandro Tabilo, while the market favors Rafael Jodar (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Set Handicap: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Tabilo (40%) · Alejandro Tabilo at 46¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Alejandro Tabilo
5
Alejandro Tabilo 40%
$3.9K
$12.31
44.9¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlejandro Tabilo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Tabilo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FA fastball67CTR | Alejandro Tabiloavg 44.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$26.77 | 49% 123-126 (249) |
 VeryLucky888 | Rafael Jodaravg 55¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$15 | 58% 43595-31708 (75303) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Rafael Jodaravg 55¢ | $39.05 | $38.7 | -$0.35 | 50% 4008-3990 (7998) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢ | $12.6 | $13.5 | +$0.9 | 46% 9226-10935 (20161) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Rafael Jodaravg 56¢ | $7.2 | $5 | +$0 | 52% 7637-6912 (14549) |
Invested
$2,158.1
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$26.77
Record
49%
123-126 (249)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,649.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$15
Record
58%
43595-31708 (75303)
Invested
$39.05
Value
$38.7
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
4008-3990 (7998)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
46%
9226-10935 (20161)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7637-6912 (14549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.