Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alejandro Tabilo, while the market favors Rafael Jodar (94%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-4.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+4.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Tabilo (43%) · Alejandro Tabilo at 6.0¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

Rafael Jodar94¢Alejandro Tabilo6¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alejandro Tabilo

Consensus Traders

Alejandro Tabilo 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$159.87

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 6¢

-89% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlejandro Tabilo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Tabilo

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rafael Jodar94%

Alejandro Tabilo6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alejandro Tabilo3 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares12,919

Combined PnL-$67.66

Rafael Jodar4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,860

Combined PnL+$227.53

Alejandro Tabilo — 43%Rafael Jodar — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Tabilo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAlejandro Tabilo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fastball67CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 54.9¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$68.61	49% 123-126 (249)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 45.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$10	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 45.5¢	$719.91	$712	-$10
└ Alejandro Tabilo leg	Alejandro Tabiloavg 55¢	$488.89	$488.89	+$0
BA Bagwell306	Rafael Jodaravg 46¢	$919.08	$1.2K	+$249.75	59% 4098-2906 (7004)
NO Notradecopy	Rafael Jodaravg 45¢	$999.99	$999.99	-$11.11	49% 3953-4141 (8094)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Rafael Jodaravg 45¢	$2.2K	$988.88	-$11.11	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
NO Novelty8CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 53¢	$630.96	$494.05	-$136.91	71% 642-266 (908)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Rafael Jodaravg 45¢	$188	$188	+$0	51% 1592-1534 (3126)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 45.3¢	$11.01	$11.66	+$0.65	59% 30975-21694 (52669)

fastball67CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$6,432.05

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$68.61

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1,398.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

Both legs:

Rafael Jodar$719.9145.5¢-$10

Alejandro Tabilo$488.8955¢+$0

Bagwell306

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$919.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$249.75

Record

59%

4098-2906 (7004)

Notradecopy

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$999.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

-$11.11

Record

49%

3953-4141 (8094)

GamblingAddict12345

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2,222.21

Value

$988.88

PnL

-$11.11

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

Novelty8CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$630.96

Value

$494.05

PnL

-$136.91

Record

71%

642-266 (908)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$188

Value

$188

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1592-1534 (3126)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$11.01

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$0.65

Record

59%

30975-21694 (52669)

Research grade

AvoidAlejandro Tabilo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Tabilo

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Tabilo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAlejandro Tabilo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alejandro Tabilo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1265.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

1365.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.