Lima: Ryo Tabata vs Johan Nikles

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ryo Tabata (50%) · Ryo Tabata at 53¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16

Ryo Tabata53¢Johan Nikles47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryo Tabata

Consensus Traders

Ryo Tabata 50%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$583.07

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyo Tabata at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryo Tabata

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ryo Tabata53%

Johan Nikles48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryo Tabata6 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares19,203

Combined PnL+$511.76

Johan Nikles6 traders

Total Value$455.59

Total Shares773

Combined PnL+$71.3

Ryo Tabata — 50%Johan Nikles — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ryo Tabataavg 54.2¢	$9.4K	$10.0K	+$663.22	53% 72100-63589 (135689)
38 38791873984189	Ryo Tabataavg 55.3¢	$829.07	$670.04	-$24.62	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Johan Niklesavg 46.2¢	$410.87	$243.52	+$48.22	58% 233-171 (404)
0X 0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8	Ryo Tabataavg 56.2¢	$299.79	$175.91	-$123.87	43% 304-407 (711)
EU Eulhunter	Ryo Tabataavg 53.5¢	$129.2	$130.34	+$1.14	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 45¢	$69.66	$72.19	+$2.53	52% 6204-5726 (11930)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 46.6¢	$45.15	$41.1	+$2.1	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
PA pauleta23<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 59.8¢	$42	$39.69	-$2.31	65% 25764-13858 (39622)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 50.2¢	$28.21	$37.62	+$9.4	45% 2742-3329 (6071)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 43.8¢	$32.86	$34.43	+$1.57	54% 10552-8959 (19511)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 48.2¢	$19.25	$26.73	+$7.48	46% 2839-3298 (6137)
VE Venusian<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 40.2¢	$10.05	$8.25	-$1.8	45% 2804-3415 (6219)

RN1

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$9,369.85

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$663.22

Record

53%

72100-63589 (135689)

38791873984189

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$829.07

Value

$670.04

PnL

-$24.62

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

thirdt1meCTR

Johan Nikles

Invested

$410.87

Value

$243.52

PnL

+$48.22

Record

58%

233-171 (404)

0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$299.79

Value

$175.91

PnL

-$123.87

Record

43%

304-407 (711)

Eulhunter

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$129.2

Value

$130.34

PnL

+$1.14

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$69.66

Value

$72.19

PnL

+$2.53

Record

52%

6204-5726 (11930)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$45.15

Value

$41.1

PnL

+$2.1

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

pauleta23<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$42

Value

$39.69

PnL

-$2.31

Record

65%

25764-13858 (39622)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$28.21

Value

$37.62

PnL

+$9.4

Record

45%

2742-3329 (6071)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$32.86

Value

$34.43

PnL

+$1.57

Record

54%

10552-8959 (19511)

LimousinCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$19.25

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$7.48

Record

46%

2839-3298 (6137)

Venusian<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$10.05

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$1.8

Record

45%

2804-3415 (6219)

Research grade

NeutralRyo Tabata at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ryo Tabata

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryo Tabata wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.