Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dane Sweeny, while the market favors Juncheng Shang (64%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brisbane 3: Dane Sweeny vs Juncheng Shang

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dane Sweeny (78%) · Dane Sweeny at 37¢ · $716 held · ends Nov 20

Dane Sweeny37¢Juncheng Shang63¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Dane Sweeny

Consensus Traders

Dane Sweeny 78%

Total Value

$715.68

Combined PnL

$18.31

Smart Money Entry

35.9¢ → 36.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateDane Sweeny at 37%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dane Sweeny

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Juncheng Shang 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dane Sweeny37%

Juncheng Shang64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juncheng Shang2 traders

Total Value$284.72

Total Shares442

Combined PnL+$2.21

Dane Sweeny7 traders

Total Value$430.96

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL+$16.09

Juncheng Shang — 22%Dane Sweeny — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Dane Sweeny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDane Sweeny 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dane Sweeny 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Juncheng Shangavg 64¢	$249.07	$251.01	+$1.95	56% 312-248 (560)
CI cigarettesCTR	Dane Sweenyavg 36¢	$180	$182.5	+$2.5	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
VE VenusianCTR	Dane Sweenyavg 36.6¢	$104.3	$108.15	+$3.85	33% 629-1267 (1896)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 34¢	$56.12	$62.72	+$6.6	34% 639-1259 (1898)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 35.4¢	$40.35	$43.35	+$3.01	35% 657-1232 (1889)
VeryLucky888<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 63¢	$33.45	$33.71	+$0.27	53% 852-766 (1618)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 38¢	$21.47	$21.47	+$0	39% 110-171 (281)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 36¢	$9.97	$10.11	+$0.14	42% 306-427 (733)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 38¢	$2.66	$2.66	+$0	52% 388-362 (750)

0xheavy888

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$249.07

Value

$251.01

PnL

+$1.95

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

cigarettesCTR

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$180

Value

$182.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

VenusianCTR

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$104.3

Value

$108.15

PnL

+$3.85

Record

33%

629-1267 (1896)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$56.12

Value

$62.72

PnL

+$6.6

Record

34%

639-1259 (1898)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$40.35

Value

$43.35

PnL

+$3.01

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

VeryLucky888<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$33.45

Value

$33.71

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$21.47

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

110-171 (281)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$9.97

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$0.14

Record

42%

306-427 (733)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

Research grade

Research candidateDane Sweeny at 37%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dane Sweeny

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Juncheng Shang 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Dane Sweeny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDane Sweeny 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dane Sweeny 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dane Sweeny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.