Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hayato Matsuoka, while the market favors Fajing Sun (60%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ningbo: Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Hayato Matsuoka (67%) · Hayato Matsuoka at 40¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Fajing Sun60¢Hayato Matsuoka40¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hayato Matsuoka

Consensus Traders

Hayato Matsuoka 67%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$442.15

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 40¢

-23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralHayato Matsuoka at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hayato Matsuoka

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Fajing Sun 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Fajing Sun60%

Hayato Matsuoka40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hayato Matsuoka10 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,412

Combined PnL+$147.48

Fajing Sun5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,173

Combined PnL+$294.67

Hayato Matsuoka — 67%Fajing Sun — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU Justluck9CTR	Hayato Matsuokaavg 49¢	$988.25	$1.1K	+$90.76	41% 86-126 (212)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Hayato Matsuokaavg 54.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$20	38% 411-673 (1084)
EF efntrick	Fajing Sunavg 41.7¢	$758.01	$1.1K	+$298.57	48% 3599-3846 (7445)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Hayato Matsuokaavg 58¢	$324.8	$401.65	+$81.35	60% 3875-2632 (6507)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Hayato Matsuokaavg 47¢	$223.53	$225.91	+$2.38	52% 13458-12308 (25766)
TRCMCTR<$100	Hayato Matsuokaavg 54¢	$81	$80.25	-$0.75	55% 3888-3118 (7006)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Fajing Sunavg 47¢	$72.38	$71.61	-$0.77	58% 27838-20469 (48307)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Fajing Sunavg 48¢	$48.66	$47.14	-$1.52	49% 18371-18801 (37172)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Hayato Matsuokaavg 49¢	$47.53	$47.05	-$0.48	50% 3663-3631 (7294)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Hayato Matsuokaavg 58.2¢	$49.47	$43.78	-$5.7	58% 18283-13435 (31718)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Fajing Sunavg 47.8¢	$41.76	$40.65	-$1.11	59% 44203-30575 (74778)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Fajing Sunavg 35¢	$35	$34.5	-$0.5	52% 1187-1117 (2304)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hayato Matsuokaavg 42¢	$7.35	$7	-$0.35	54% 2513-2131 (4644)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Hayato Matsuokaavg 40¢	$4	$4.05	+$0.05	59% 29904-20632 (50536)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Hayato Matsuokaavg 50¢	$3.22	$3.44	+$0.23	62% 13571-8389 (21960)

Justluck9CTR

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$988.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$90.76

Record

41%

86-126 (212)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$1,089.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

38%

411-673 (1084)

efntrick

Fajing Sun

Invested

$758.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$298.57

Record

48%

3599-3846 (7445)

thestingsnakeCTR

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$324.8

Value

$401.65

PnL

+$81.35

Record

60%

3875-2632 (6507)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$223.53

Value

$225.91

PnL

+$2.38

Record

52%

13458-12308 (25766)

TRCMCTR<$100

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$81

Value

$80.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

55%

3888-3118 (7006)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$72.38

Value

$71.61

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$48.66

Value

$47.14

PnL

-$1.52

Record

49%

18371-18801 (37172)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$47.53

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

3663-3631 (7294)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$49.47

Value

$43.78

PnL

-$5.7

Record

58%

18283-13435 (31718)

UpTheBlues<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$41.76

Value

$40.65

PnL

-$1.11

Record

59%

44203-30575 (74778)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$35

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

1187-1117 (2304)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$7.35

Value

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

2513-2131 (4644)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

29904-20632 (50536)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Hayato Matsuoka

Invested

$3.22

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.23

Record

62%

13571-8389 (21960)

Research grade

NeutralHayato Matsuoka at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hayato Matsuoka

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Fajing Sun 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hayato Matsuoka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.