Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuno Borges, while the market favors Jan-Lennard Struff (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nuno Borges (50%) · Nuno Borges at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Nuno Borges
6
Nuno Borges 50%
$6.5K
-$65.26
47.9¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNuno Borges at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Jan-Lennard Struff 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Nuno Borges. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Nuno Borgesavg 48¢ | $6.0K | $5.9K | -$62.5 | 5% 17-315 (332) |
OL olivereaCTR | Nuno Borgesavg 46¢ | $300 | $306.52 | +$6.52 | 59% 311-216 (527) |
38 38791873984189 | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 54.7¢ | $144.88 | $139.16 | -$5.71 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 54¢ | $80.46 | $78.23 | -$2.24 | 56% 7053-5653 (12706) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Nuno Borgesavg 47¢ | $40.89 | $40.89 | -$1.31 | 58% 28411-20968 (49379) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 53¢ | $2.62 | $2.59 | -$0.02 | 58% 41483-30101 (71584) |
Invested
$6,000
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$62.5
Record
5%
17-315 (332)
Invested
$300
Value
$306.52
PnL
+$6.52
Record
59%
311-216 (527)
Invested
$144.88
Value
$139.16
PnL
-$5.71
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$80.46
Value
$78.23
PnL
-$2.24
Record
56%
7053-5653 (12706)
Invested
$40.89
Value
$40.89
PnL
-$1.31
Record
58%
28411-20968 (49379)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
41483-30101 (71584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.